Climate change will reduce overall avalanche occurrences in Switzerland but increase the risk of wet snow avalanches by 2100. Dry snow avalanches are expected to decline as winter temperatures rise, leading to fewer avalanches reaching valley locations, although extreme snowfall events may still occur. Researchers recommend that ski resorts in danger zones be closed to enhance safety.
Climate change is projected to alter avalanche dynamics in Switzerland by the turn of the century. According to the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF), there will be a decrease in the overall number of avalanches, contrasted with a significant increase in wet snow avalanches by 2100. This phenomenon occurs when rain or meltwater saturates the snowpack, enhancing the risk of wet snow avalanches, particularly in areas above the tree line. However, dry snow avalanches are expected to decline as temperatures rise. The research indicates that with an average increase of approximately five degrees Celsius in winter temperatures by 2100, the frequency of avalanches reaching valley areas may diminish due to higher snow lines and a reduction in overall snow accumulation. Nevertheless, extreme snowfall events may still occur, posing risks of larger avalanches occurring at elevated altitudes. If these avalanches are channeled effectively, they may still reach valley locations, resembling current patterns. The SLF’s study included assessments from seven sites across Switzerland, including regions above Davos and near Zermatt.
The increase in wet snow avalanches amid declining overall avalanche activity reflects the broader impacts of climate change on weather patterns and snow dynamics. Switzerland is particularly susceptible to these shifts due to its alpine geography and reliance on winter sports tourism. The findings from the SLF highlight the necessity for ski resorts in vulnerable areas to implement optimal safety measures, which may include closures in certain zones to mitigate risks associated with increased avalanche danger. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for public safety, environmental management, and planning in the face of climate variability.
In conclusion, climate change is anticipated to bring about significant changes in avalanche behavior in Switzerland by 2100. While an overall reduction in avalanche occurrences is expected, the threat posed by wet snow avalanches is likely to increase, thereby necessitating enhanced safety measures in regions at risk. As these environmental dynamics evolve, ongoing research and strategic planning will be essential to ensure public safety and manage the impact on outdoor recreational activities.
Original Source: www.swissinfo.ch
