Carmit Valensi advises that Israel must condition its withdrawal from Syria, stressing that a stay beyond six months could be detrimental. The EU’s move towards normalizing relations with al-Julani’s regime increases pressure on Israel. Valensi recommends stabilizing Syria under a moderate regime, revisiting border defense strategies, and enhancing diplomatic relations to secure long-term benefits.
Carmit Valensi, program head at the Institute for National Security Studies and a former IDF intelligence officer, emphasized that Israel must establish conditions for a withdrawal from its buffer zone in Syria. She cautioned that remaining in the region longer than six months could create unfavorable circumstances. In a recent interview with The Jerusalem Post, she provided recommendations for Israel’s policy regarding Syria.
Following the recent announcement from the European Union, which outlined a roadmap for potentially lifting its sanctions against Syria, there are signs that relations with the new regime led by Abu Mohammed al-Julani of Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) may be normalizing. This shift marks a significant change in Western policy after Julani’s regime displaced Bashar al-Assad in December.
As Western powers inch closer to collaborating with Julani, who has indicated his commitment to maintaining the 1974 armistice with Israel while demanding its withdrawal from Syrian land, pressure may intensify on Israel to pull back. In response to the aftermath of the Assad regime’s fall, the IDF established a buffer zone along the Israeli-Syrian border, which included enhanced defenses against potential threats.
Valensi discussed in her INSS publication that both uncertainties regarding the intentions of the new Syrian leadership and the broader future of Syria present challenges and opportunities for Israel. She articulated that for Israel to secure long-term strategic benefits, it should actively work to stabilize Syria under a regime that is moderate, effective, and willing to engage politically.
To enhance security, Valensi recommended an updated border defense strategy, which includes reassessing the buffer zone’s status and collaborating with the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF). Given the UN’s limited peacekeeping success in the region, she proposed strengthening arrangements with both the new Syrian regime and Turkey, leveraging its influence in the area.
Additionally, securing cooperation from Druze communities near the Israeli-Syrian border could be beneficial, as these groups often have favorable relations with Israel. Valensi urged Israel to initiate communication with the new Syrian administration in order to protect its interests in the Golan Heights and further into Syrian territory, reflecting past practices of engagement with various rebel factions.
In her recommendations, Valensi underscored the importance of clearly communicating Israel’s temporary military presence in Syria, contingent on achieving security guarantees. Key conditions for any withdrawal should include a sustained period of stability along the border and assurances against Syrian infiltrations, potentially involving collaboration with the new regime to limit Hezbollah’s activities.
Further, she highlighted the necessity of ensuring that radical groups do not position themselves close to Israel’s borders, while advocating for the rights of minority communities within Syria. Valensi also suggested providing targeted humanitarian aid to foster positive relations.
In terms of regional diplomacy, she recommended establishing connections with Turkey to facilitate its role in Syria’s future, while also strengthening ties with Jordan and Gulf States. Valensi proposed forming an international committee involving Israel, Turkey, the US, and Russia with the objective of stabilizing the new Syrian regime and safeguarding minority populations.
Ultimately, Valensi opined that Israel must combine security measures with diplomatic initiatives, viewing this as a crucial opportunity to positively influence Syria’s stability, improve its international standing, and enhance national security for years to come.
The current geopolitical landscape in Syria has evolved following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad by Abu Mohammed al-Julani and his regime, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). With Western powers considering lifting sanctions on Syria, the dynamics of Israel’s security interests in the region are becoming increasingly complex. Israel’s established buffer zone is a response to these developments, highlighting the necessity for strategic recommendations on national security and international relations amidst uncertainty and potential threats.
In conclusion, Israel’s strategic approach to its buffer zone in Syria must emphasize the establishment of defined withdrawal conditions and strengthen regional diplomacy. By addressing security concerns effectively and engaging with new Syrian leadership while fostering international collaboration, Israel can enhance its security interests and contribute to regional stabilization.
Original Source: www.jpost.com
