The WISER EWSA program launches an intensive weather forecast testbed in Zambia on January 30, 2025, aiming to improve severe weather predictions following recent cyclones. In collaboration with local communities and meteorological experts, the initiative seeks to enhance early warning systems and preparedness against climate-related hazards in southern Africa. This effort underscores the importance of accurate forecasts in safeguarding vulnerable populations against extreme weather events.
On January 30, 2025, the second intensive weather forecasting testbed of the WISER Early Warnings for Southern Africa (EWSA) initiative will commence in Lusaka, Zambia, alongside centers in South Africa and Mozambique. This initiative aims to enhance forecasting capabilities in the region after the recent devastation caused by Tropical Cyclones Dikeledi and Chido, which severely impacted communities in Mozambique and Madagascar.
Severe weather events, including the powerful Tropical Cyclone Chido with gusts exceeding 200 kilometers per hour, have underscored the vulnerability of southern Africa to hazardous weather. Cyclone Dikeledi was similarly destructive, displacing thousands and leading to loss of life. The need for improved forecasting and timely warnings is vital as the region faces an increased frequency of storms due to climate change effects.
The multidisciplinary team of meteorologists, scientists, and user engagement specialists will work collaboratively during this intensive testbed to deliver actionable weather forecasts and severe weather alerts to at-risk communities. This effort is part of an ongoing series of testbeds aimed at refining nowcasting methodologies, which provide short-term predictions of severe weather events.
The intensive testbed is part of a broader ‘king-size’ testbed program starting in October 2024 and lasting until April 2025. Unlike the more restricted previous testbed, this intensive phase includes regular feedback mechanisms from community observers, enabling more consistent communication and accuracy assessments.
Nowcasting provides real-time updates crucial for community preparedness in light of unpredictable severe weather patterns. This project supports the United Nations’ EW4All initiative, which aims to ensure comprehensive early warning systems to protect all individuals from hazardous climate events by 2027.
The importance of precise and timely weather forecasts becomes increasingly evident given the growing challenges of climate-induced irregular weather patterns. As highlighted by Mr. Ishaam Abader, CEO of the South African Weather Service, the project focuses on urban communities that are disadvantaged while strengthening meteorological forecasting capacities.
Through the support of community engagement, the project is learning from local volunteers who help disseminate information and provide feedback on forecasting accuracy. Professor Douglas Parker emphasizes the importance of leveraging these insights to achieve tailored and effective weather services in the future.
On the technical side, there has been notable progress as meteorological services in Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia begin to independently handle nowcasting processes, demonstrating increased operational capabilities. Dr. Itzel San Roman Pineda underlines the importance of rapid communication of weather updates to ensure communities can respond promptly to evolving weather conditions.
There are socioeconomic factors to consider as well; sustaining forecasting processes amid recurrent extreme weather is resource-intensive. Dr. Adriaan Perrels highlights the significance of developing sustainable business models to support long-term forecasting services across the continent.
The integration of local disaster management efforts with the new early warning system is addressed by Dr. Katharine Vincent, stressing volunteer engagement crucial for community awareness. The WISER EWSA framework aims to foster better collaboration between producers and users of weather information, ultimately enhancing the trust in and efficacy of forecasting systems in the region.
The article discusses the launch of an intensive weather forecasting testbed in January 2025, which is part of the Weather and Climate Information Services (WISER) for Southern Africa program aimed at enhancing severe weather forecasting in the region. Following devastating events from Tropical Cyclones Dikeledi and Chido, the initiative is designed to provide life-saving forecasts to vulnerable communities. The focus is on collaboration among meteorologists, scientists, and local volunteers to create accessible and accurate weather information for those at risk of extreme weather events.
In conclusion, the intensive weather forecast testbed in Zambia seeks to improve forecasting and early warning systems in southern Africa, particularly following the recent destructive cyclones. Emphasizing the collaboration between meteorologists and local communities, the project aims to enhance resilience against climate-related hazards. With ongoing evaluation and lessons learned, it aspires to create sustainable forecasting models crucial for future climate challenges.
Original Source: www.metoffice.gov.uk
