Ecuador is nearing crucial elections, with escalating crime rates overshadowing economic issues. Security strategies under President Noboa’s administration have yielded some success but require more comprehensive approaches to dismantle organized crime effectively. Violent fragmentation among criminal groups complicates governance and public safety, while intertwined politics share a troubling relationship with organized crime. The upcoming elections will significantly influence the nation’s trajectory amid these challenges.
As Ecuadorians prepare to vote for their president and national assembly members on February 9, pressing security issues overshadow other critical matters such as energy and unemployment crises. Once regarded as a peaceful nation, Ecuador has experienced a dramatic increase in crime over the last five years, with homicides rising by 430%, femicides doubling, and youth violence climbing by 640%. The deteriorating security landscape not only impacts the lives of Ecuadorians but also contributes to increased migration pressures affecting the United States.
In response to mounting criminal violence, President Daniel Noboa declared an internal armed conflict and classified 22 criminal organizations as terrorist entities. Following violent incidents in Guayaquil in early 2024, he implemented emergency measures, authorizing military action against these groups. Although the measures have led to a significant reduction in homicides, critics argue that the security strategy remains inadequate and that it requires a more holistic approach to disrupt criminal organization structures and enhance judicial and police capacities.
Throughout Ecuador, the rise of organized crime has led to violent fragmentation, with groups such as Los Lobos, Los Choneros, and Los Tiguerones competing for control. The fragmentation has made it challenging for government responses as new factions emerge, creating violent turf wars. Additionally, these groups now engage in activities beyond drug trafficking, including extortion and human smuggling, severely impacting community safety and local businesses.
Ecuadorian criminal organizations have developed more independent arrangements with transnational crime syndicates, enabling them to take control of cocaine distribution, previously handled by Mexican cartels. This shift has intensified internal rivalries among local groups as they strive to establish partnerships with various international criminal organizations, leading to increased violence and instability.
The politicization of violence remains a grave concern, with rising assassinations of political candidates challenging the influence of criminal organizations. Such acts reflect the corruption of local governance structures and the encroaching power of organized crime in establishing alternative governance. Deep-rooted ties between government officials and criminal entities have further weakened state authority, as highlighted by various scandals.
In the upcoming elections, President Noboa’s tough-on-crime approach has garnered him considerable public support, as evidenced by his approval ratings. He maintains a lead among presidential candidates while offering a security platform emphasizing military-police collaboration and enhanced use of technology. Contrarily, candidate Luisa González advocates for approaches focusing on social reintegration and community safety without reliance on military presence in crime control.
To effectively combat escalating crime, there is a crucial need for a comprehensive security strategy that integrates law enforcement with community resilience programs. Restructuring focus from high-value targeting to dismantling criminal networks will disrupt operational capacities and reduce the regeneration of leadership within these groups. Expanding law enforcement activities to address various forms of organized crime is essential for diminishing their influence.
Investment in technology, interagency cooperation, and the establishment of special investigative units are vital for combating organized crime and high-level corruption. Strengthening Ecuador’s judicial system and rebuilding the Ministry of Justice will further enhance efforts against powerful criminal networks. Furthermore, collaboration between the United States and Ecuador, particularly in maritime operations and technological upgrades, will contribute to ongoing anti-crime initiatives.
Ecuador is presently grappling with significant security challenges that have transformed it from a previously safe nation into a hotspot for organized crime and violence. Crime rates have surged alarmingly, indicating a breakdown in public safety and law enforcement efficiency, severely hampering social and economic stability. This escalation of violence has not only destabilized the internal landscape but has also raised international concerns regarding its implications for neighboring countries and the United States, especially regarding migration and transnational crime. The current political climate adds to these complexities, as upcoming elections place security and criminal violence at the forefront of public discourse, compelling candidates to address these pressing issues head-on. President Noboa’s administration has adopted hardline measures to curb crime, prompting discussions about their effectiveness and the necessary holistic approach to achieve long-lasting security improvements. Ultimately, Ecuador finds itself at a critical juncture, where the political response to crime and violence will shape its future, offering a key opportunity to implement strategies that not only address criminality but also foster social resilience and judicial integrity.
In summary, Ecuador is at a pivotal moment as it confronts severe security challenges exacerbated by organized crime and violence. The government’s response has elicited both successes and shortcomings, demonstrating the necessity for a comprehensive approach to dismantle criminal networks and strengthen law enforcement capacities. With the presidential elections approaching, it will be critical for leaders to navigate these issues effectively, ensure public safety, and restore faith in governance amid rising criminal influence. A holistic strategic direction that includes socio-economic investment and strengthens judicial frameworks is essential for Ecuador’s recovery and the safeguarding of its democratic integrity.
Original Source: www.brookings.edu
