Ecuador’s presidential election resulted in a runoff between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González, with close results prompting a highly competitive environment for the April 13 election. Noboa leads with 44.3% while González follows at 43.8%. Both candidates will need to address pressing issues like security and economic concerns, with potential influences from smaller party candidates vital to their campaigns.
Ecuadorians participated in a presidential election on February 9, alongside votes for the 151 members of the National Assembly. With 92% of the votes counted, incumbent Daniel Noboa from the Acción Democrática Nacional party leads with 44.3%, closely followed by Luisa González of the Citizen’s Revolution party at 43.8%. The narrow margin, with approximately 45,000 votes separating the two, sets the stage for a competitive runoff scheduled for April 13, 2023.
In the National Assembly elections, Noboa’s ADN party received 43.5% of the votes, while González’s RC garnered 41.2%. This indicates that both parties will hold substantial influence in the legislature. Preliminary results indicate a shift in power dynamics, with ADN possibly securing over 40% of seats, breaking a long-standing hold by correísmo, which has not held the presidency since 2017.
Political analyst Sebastián Hurtado remarked on Noboa’s notable reelection prospects, given the historical difficulty for Ecuadorian presidents in securing reelection. He emphasized that Noboa’s ability to maintain support amid challenges like rising violence and economic struggles reflects potential voter patience and an understanding of the complexities faced in his brief tenure of 14 months.
Hurtado further stated that although Noboa appears favored, the closeness of the first round indicates that correísmo remains a relevant political entity. Despite Rafael Correa’s exile, the movement maintains a dedicated supporter base influenced by nostalgia for its governance period, suggesting the race could remain highly contested and unpredictable.
Camila Ulloa, from On Think Tanks, outlined the competitive nature of the upcoming runoff, highlighting that Noboa and González are the predominant candidates, with Leonidas Iza trailing significantly. Noboa’s campaign has prioritized digital outreach, allocating substantial resources towards social media platforms to reach younger voters, although security issues may challenge his candidacy.
González’s strategy is aimed at broadening her appeal beyond her traditional correísta base, making alliances with other factions pivotal for her electoral success. The dynamics of the upcoming campaign will hinge on Leonard Iza’s voter base, potentially influencing the runoff’s final outcome depending on coalition efforts.
Professor Saudia Levoyer noted that both candidates will need to focus on capturing the undecided voters and those who opted for blank ballots in the first round. The campaign will likely deepen societal polarization as both parties address sensitive topics such as security, economic stability, and potential political corruption related to Rafael Correa.
Levoyer emphasized the importance of how candidates conduct themselves during this period, as their interactions could lead to either political discord or constructive cooperation, thereby significantly impacting the future of Ecuador’s political landscape.
The upcoming runoff election in Ecuador between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González is poised to be exceptionally competitive, marked by a strikingly close first-round result. With both candidates needing to secure broader voter bases while addressing pressing national concerns, including security and economic issues, the campaigning strategies will be critical. The election and its implications on the balance of power within the National Assembly reflect an evolving political landscape in Ecuador.
Original Source: americasquarterly.org
