Lebanon observes the 20th anniversary of Rafic Hariri’s assassination against a backdrop of shifting political dynamics that may benefit his son, Saad Hariri. Recent events indicate a weakening of Hezbollah’s influence following a year of hostilities, amidst changes in leadership and newfound regional interest from Saudi Arabia. The memorial serves as a barometer for Saad’s political future within an evolving landscape.
On February 14, 2025, Lebanon commemorated the 20th anniversary of former Prime Minister Rafic Hariri’s assassination, coinciding with significant political changes that appear to diminish the influence of Hezbollah and might facilitate the political resurgence of Hariri’s son, Saad. Rafic Hariri, a pivotal figure in Lebanon’s post-civil war reconstruction, had resigned shortly before his tragic death in 2005, which triggered widespread protests and calls for reform in Lebanese politics.
A UN-backed tribunal has sentenced two absent Hezbollah members to life imprisonment for their involvement in the bombing that killed Hariri and 21 others; however, Hezbollah has refused to surrender these individuals. Saad Hariri, who has previously held the office of prime minister three times, returned from the United Arab Emirates to participate in this year’s commemorative events amid a transformed political landscape.
The anniversary occurs close to the expiration of a ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel, following a year marked by hostility which has left Hezbollah weakened. Concerns concerning the truce have risen, mainly after Beirut declined Israel’s proposal to extend its military presence in specific southern regions beyond their February 18 deadline.
Despite these tensions, Hezbollah retains considerable influence, demonstrated recently by supporters blocking access to the airport due to the barring of Iranian aircraft. Previous allegations from the Israeli military suggest that Iran has been funding Hezbollah, indicating an ongoing regional power struggle impacting Lebanese stability.
During the memorial, thousands of Hariri supporters gathered to honor his memory near his burial site. One attendee expressed profound joy at both the downtrodden Syrian regime and the presence of Sheikh Saad, reflecting shifting sentiments in Lebanon.
Sources close to Saad Hariri reveal that he may deliver a speech regarding political developments, though uncertainties persist concerning his immediate return to active politics. Hariri’s prior perspective, which saw him distancing from political engagement due to Iranian influence, is now reported to be changing, possibly paving the way for his renewed leadership.
Historically, Hezbollah has dominated Lebanese politics, but recent conflicts have sabotaged its power dynamics and supply lines. With the election of former army chief Joseph Aoun as the president and the establishment of a new government led by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, the political landscape shows signs of reorganization that favor a reduction in Iranian influence.
Moreover, interests from Saudi Arabia in Lebanese affairs seem to be revitalizing as the kingdom seeks to strengthen Sunni leadership within the country. Analysts observe that Saad Hariri’s potential return to politics could coincide harmoniously with Riyadh’s aspirations, underscoring the significance of the current political environment and its transformation post-Hariri’s assassination.
The anniversary serves not only as a remembrance for Rafic Hariri but also as a test of Saad Hariri’s ability to galvanize support amongst the Sunni community, essential for his political resurgence in a nation historically fragmented along sectarian lines.
Hezbollah, striving to demonstrate resilience against political adversaries, faces challenges as the Lebanese government takes measures to address the struggles of its citizens, including assistance for passengers affected by recent travel restrictions.
The commemoration of Rafic Hariri’s assassination marks a pivotal moment in Lebanon, reflecting a significant shift in political dynamics that may enable Saad Hariri’s return to leadership. As Hezbollah’s influence wanes amid regional tensions and changing international attitudes, Saad Hariri’s potential re-engagement in politics could redefine Sunni representation and contribute to a new chapter in Lebanon’s ongoing struggle for stability.
Original Source: www.arabnews.com
