Ecuador’s recent election results pose concerns for U.S. interests as leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez, aligned with former president Rafael Correa, competes closely with center-right Daniel Noboa in an upcoming runoff. Both candidates dominated the initial vote, while the indigenous Pachakutik party’s support could sway the outcome. The election results suggest a potential shift to the left that may complicate U.S. relations with Ecuador if Gonzalez wins.
The outcome of Ecuador’s February 9 election signals troubling news for the United States and the state of democracy in Latin America. The leftist populist party, linked to former president Rafael Correa—an ally of Venezuela—performed unexpectedly well, positioning candidate Luisa Gonzalez for a competitive April 13 runoff election. Preliminary expectations favored center-right candidate Daniel Noboa, who ultimately secured 44.2% of the vote, narrowly edging out Gonzalez’s 43.9%.
Leonidas Iza, representing the leftist Pachakutik party, garnered 5.3% of the vote, creating a critical dynamic for the upcoming runoff. These indigenous voters are anticipated to play a significant role in the deciding ballot, potentially leaning toward Gonzalez due to her Correa affiliation. A Correa return threatens to shift Ecuador dramatically to the left given Gonzalez’s deep allegiance to Correa’s policies.
Former Ecuadoran president Jamil Mahuad noted, “She is in tune with the socialism of the 21st century movement.” He expressed concerns that Gonzalez may align Ecuador with regimes supported by the BRICS bloc, including China and Russia. After his presidency from 2007 to 2017, Correa fled Ecuador following a corruption conviction, maintaining a long-standing antagonism toward the United States, shaped in part by his father’s incarceration on drug charges in the U.S.
During his presidency, Correa closed the U.S. anti-narcotics base in Manta and enacted laws described as favorable to organized crime. Political scientist Santiago Basabe asserts that Gonzalez’s chances of winning are bolstered by the substantial votes accumulated by both her and Noboa in the first round. Approximately 90% of the ballots were captured by these candidates, with Gonzalez likely to attract Pachakutik supporters in the runoff.
Political consultant Jaime Durán Barba expresses surprise at the initial close results, yet retains hope for Noboa due to the fragmented nature of the Pachakutik votes. He emphasizes the indigenous voters’ decision-making, which is primarily influenced by cultural identity rather than traditional ideological labels. The challenge for Noboa lies in addressing rampant drug-related violence, the chief concern for Ecuadorians, along with resolving the ongoing energy crisis.
To regain public confidence, Noboa must engage indigenous communities, implement substantial anti-violence measures, and secure diplomatic support from the U.S. and other Latin American allies. Without decisive action, Gonzalez has a strong chance of winning, despite public nostalgia for Correa’s earlier economic boom. However, it is essential to remember Correa’s legacy of authoritarianism and the subsequent rise of crime during his regime. Should Gonzalez triumph, Ecuador is poised to become a significant issue for Washington and the broader Latin American region.
Ecuador’s February 9 election results indicate a precarious situation for U.S. interests and the democratic landscape in Latin America, with leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez closely challenging incumbent Daniel Noboa. Correa’s political legacy looms large, and his party’s potential return may alter Ecuador’s direction towards leftist alliances detrimental to U.S. interests. Noboa must aggressively address pressing issues and forge strategic alliances to counter Gonzalez’s momentum in the upcoming runoff election. The stakes are high, as a Correa-backed victory could revitalize ties with anti-U.S. regimes in the region.
Original Source: buenosairesherald.com
