Ecuador faced a pivotal election with potential implications for U.S. interests in the region. Leftist candidate Luisa Gonzalez is closely competing against center-right Daniel Noboa, with significant support from the Pachakutik party. A Gonzalez victory could realign Ecuador’s alliances and challenge U.S. policies, amidst rising violence and energy issues. Noboa must swiftly address these pressing concerns to retain voter support and prevent a leftist resurgence.
The outcome of Ecuador’s February 9 election poses significant concerns for the United States and the broader democratic landscape in Latin America. The leftist populist party associated with former president Rafael Correa performed better than anticipated and now has a strong chance of prevailing in the April 13 runoff. While center-right candidate Daniel Noboa was expected to secure a clear victory, he and Correa-backed candidate Luisa Gonzalez are now nearly tied, with Noboa receiving 44.2% and Gonzalez 43.9% of the votes.
The third-place finisher, Leonidas Iza of the Pachakutik party, garnered 5.3% of the vote, making Pachakutik supporters critical in the runoff outcome. A victory for Gonzalez, a staunch supporter of Correa, would likely shift Ecuador further left and strengthen ties with countries aligned against U.S. interests, including those in the BRICS bloc led by China and Russia.
Correa, who governed from 2007-2017, fled Ecuador after facing corruption charges. His antipathy toward the U.S. has been well documented, stemming from family history intertwined with drug trafficking allegations. During Correa’s presidency, he terminated U.S. anti-narcotics operations, raising concerns about organized crime’s penetration into Ecuador.
Political scientist Santiago Basabe predicts Gonzalez’s strong potential to win the runoff, as she and Noboa collectively secured nearly 90% of the initial votes. It appears that a significant portion of Pachakutik voters may lend their support to Gonzalez, favoring continuity with Correa’s legacy.
Jaime Durán Barba, a political consultant close to Noboa, expressed surprise at the initial vote outcomes, indicating that the voting patterns of Pachakutik followers are diverse and not strictly ideological. He noted the necessity for Noboa to address issues affecting indigenous voters, who have historically opposed Correa’s policies.
Noboa’s immediate challenges include addressing escalating drug-related violence and navigating the current energy crisis, while also seeking to gain the confidence of indigenous communities. Increasing drug-related violence has become a pressing issue, evidenced by the rising homicide rates in Ecuador.
To regain momentum, Noboa must take decisive actions against violence and leverage international support, especially from the Trump administration and allied Latin American nations. Should he fail to act swiftly, he risks losing to Correa’s candidate, recalling a past era of economic prosperity that many Ecuadorians associate with Correa’s government, despite its underlying corrupt practices and alignment with criminal elements.
A victory for Gonzalez could present new challenges for Washington, particularly as it evaluates its foreign policy in a region increasingly leaning toward leftist governance.
In conclusion, Ecuador’s recent election results highlight a potential shift toward leftist governance, which could pose complications for U.S. interests in the region. The strong showing of Correa-backed candidate Luisa Gonzalez underscores public nostalgia for past economic successes, despite the complexities of Correa’s legacy. The runoff election on April 13 will be critical, particularly as indigenous voters may sway the outcome, while Noboa faces immediate challenges in addressing violence and energy crises in the interim.
Original Source: buenosairesherald.com
