Turkmenistan is set to commence natural gas shipments to Turkey through an agreement involving Iran, beginning March 1, 2025. This swap arrangement allows Turkmenistan to deliver gas to Iran, which will in turn supply Turkey. Despite ambitions for increased pipeline capacity and gas hub status in Turkey, Turkmenistan’s heavy reliance on Iran raises questions about the stability of future exports.
Turkmenistan is poised to commence natural gas shipments to Turkey, potentially within weeks. Following long-standing discussions, a recent agreement involving Iran was confirmed by Turkmenistan’s state information agency, TDH. During a phone conversation between Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty head, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the terms for the transit of Turkmen gas to Turkey via Iran were established.
Due to the absence of a direct pipeline linking Turkmenistan to Turkey, the arrangement is a swap agreement wherein Turkmenistan will send gas to Iran, which will subsequently supply Turkey with a similar quantity of its own gas. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed this arrangement on X (formerly Twitter) and announced that gas flow is anticipated to commence on March 1, 2025.
Although the specific volume of gas to be delivered has not been disclosed, it has been previously cited that the initial shipment may consist of approximately 2 billion cubic meters (bcm). Turkish officials, eager for this agreement for over two years, envision establishing Turkey as a gas hub for Europe.
Discussions were held in December 2022 between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, focusing on a pipeline construction agreement to transport Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and subsequently to Turkey; however, these talks did not yield a conclusive result.
Despite the focus on swap arrangements, Turkey continues to advocate for a direct pipeline planned to enhance Turkmen gas imports to 15 bcm, with ambitious goals set for purchasing 300 bcm over the next two decades. The collaboration marks a significant development for Turkmenistan but also underscores its growing reliance on Iran for gas exports amid changing geopolitical dynamics.
Following its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Turkmenistan’s gas exports were primarily directed to Russia, but an agreement with Moscow lapsed in 2024. The first gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iran began operating in 1997, with a further pipeline initiated in 2010. However, disputes over pricing temporarily halted gas deliveries to Iran in 2017.
With a singular focus on exporting gas to China, which currently consumes approximately 35 bcm annually, Turkmenistan has explored various swap agreements to access additional markets, including the ongoing arrangement with Azerbaijan and a recent deal with Iraq to deliver 10 bcm.
Upcoming enhancements to the pipeline infrastructure are anticipated, involving maintenance by Iranian firms and construction of a new pipeline intended to increase Turkmen gas exports to 40 bcm, although the timeline remains undefined.
Historically, Iran has needed Turkmen gas, particularly as its northern regions lack access to southern gas supplies. However, the reliability of these swap agreements hinges on stable relations between Turkmenistan and Iran, which have experienced fluctuations in recent years, along with the uncertainties surrounding the Iranian political landscape and its associated challenges.
The imminent natural gas shipments from Turkmenistan to Turkey represent a strategic pivot towards utilizing Iranian transit capabilities, reflecting Turkmenistan’s growing dependence on Iran for gas exports. Despite the proposed swap agreement addressing immediate export needs, the reliability of such arrangements is uncertain and contingent upon the maintenance of favorable relations between the two countries, alongside the stability of the Iranian regime. The situation highlights the intricate geopolitics of energy supply in Central Asia and the continued search for sustainable export routes by Turkmenistan.
Original Source: timesca.com
