In a recent presidential election in Abkhazia, Badra Gunba, the Kremlin’s preferred candidate, was unable to win outright, leading to a runoff against challenger Adgur Ardzinba, who criticized Russian-backed economic policies. Gunba’s failure to secure a majority has raised concerns about Russian influence in the region, especially amid ongoing international condemnation of the elections. The decisive second round is expected by March 1, with uncertainty surrounding the outcome.
In the recent snap presidential election held on February 15 in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia backed by Russia, candidates uniformly adopted pro-Russian rhetoric. However, the Kremlin’s favored candidate, acting leader Badra Gunba, failed to achieve the necessary majority required to win outright, leading to a runoff against Adgur Ardzinba, who has criticized Russian economic policies. The Election Commission has confirmed Gunba’s shortfall of over 50 percent, and the decisive second round is expected by March 1.
Gunba faces a significant challenge as polling stations in Moscow and Cherkessk, where he enjoys substantial support, were open only during the first round. The upcoming runoff will also include a protest vote option, introducing an additional layer of uncertainty into the election outcome. Having ascended to the acting leadership on November 19 following the resignation of Aslan Bzhania, who stepped down amid protests against a contentious investment deal with Russia, Gunba’s support may be tested.
Adgur Ardzinba, former de facto economy minister and head of the Abkhaz People’s Movement, launched his campaign opposing the Russian-backed investment deal while still advocating for maintained relations with Moscow. Pro-government Russian media outlets have depicted him as having pro-Turkish affiliations, likely to undermine his credibility in favor of Gunba. Georgia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned the elections, calling for international opposition to Russia’s actions in Abkhazia, which remains unrecognized by most of the world.
Despite ongoing tensions stemming from Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, the country maintains a strong military presence in Abkhazia, where plans for a new naval base have been reported. The election process unfolds against this backdrop of apprehension regarding Russian influence, particularly after parliament in Abkhazia rejected an investment agreement that had raised issues regarding economic autonomy.
Russia has reportedly taken punitive measures against critics of its expansionist policies, notably stripping the citizenship from advocates such as lawmaker Kan Kvarchia and activist Levan Mikaa. Moscow actively promoted Gunba’s candidacy; prior to the election, a special flight brought him to Sukhumi Babushara Airport, reinforcing Kremlin support. Additionally, financial aid was resumed, and electricity supplies were augmented, amid escalating shortages affecting the region.
Sergei Kiriyenko, a senior aide to President Putin, led the Kremlin’s efforts during the election, committing funds for the public sector and vital infrastructure in Abkhazia. As the runoff approaches, the influence of Moscow remains critical, and Gunba’s inability to secure an outright victory suggests growing discomfort in Abkhazia concerning Russian economic policies. The outcome of the second round remains uncertain, raising queries about the future political landscape in the region.
The presidential election in Abkhazia illustrates the complexities of Russian influence in the region, with Badra Gunba unable to secure an outright majority, prompting a runoff against Adgur Ardzinba. The electoral context is marked by the Kremlin’s backing of Gunba amid increasing public discontent with Russian economic policies. As international condemnation of the elections continues, the results of the upcoming runoff will significantly impact the geopolitical dynamics in the area.
Original Source: www.rferl.org
