The U.S.-Honduran relationship has deteriorated under Trump, with key political players viewing Castro’s government as a threat. Primary elections are approaching amidst a polarized landscape, with parties facing serious issues. The cessation of U.S. support risks electoral integrity, while illicit financing and violence remain critical obstacles. Authorities must enforce transparency and the U.S. should re-engage to support democratic processes.
The relationship between the United States and Honduras has struggled significantly, particularly under the Trump administration. Many Republican figures perceive President Xiomara Castro’s government as a threat due to its connections with China and support for authoritarian regimes. Notably, Secretary of State Marco Rubio omitted Honduras from his February 2025 Central America tour, signaling a deterioration in bilateral relations.
During his term, President Trump maintained close ties with former President Juan Orlando Hernández until his extradition and conviction for drug trafficking in 2024. Hernández’s trial unearthed allegations of electoral fraud from the 2017 elections. Recently, Trump associate Roger Stone remarked that Hernández faced criminalization for opposing Castro’s administration and its perceived authoritarianism, complicating the future of U.S.-Honduran relations despite Castro’s commitment to the extradition treaty and cooperation with U.S. migrant deportations.
Primary elections are scheduled for March 9, 2025, as Honduran political parties prepare for the general elections on November 30. The political landscape is marked by contention among three main parties:
1. The Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE), nominating Rixi Moncada, a defense secretary with Castro’s backing, alongside Rasel Tomé, under U.S. sanctions for corruption.
2. The National Party (PN) features four candidates, including Ana García, the former president’s wife, and Nasry Asfura, who is facing corruption allegations.
3. The Liberal Party (PL) presents Jorge Cálix, a dissident from LIBRE, and Salvador Nasralla, who seeks to restore ties with Taiwan and has engaged U.S. officials.
The U.S. has ceased cooperation that previously supported electoral integrity, impacting institutions and civil society. Although the Organization of American States (OAS) will send a technical team, there is a lack of funding for thorough election observations, jeopardizing the integrity of the elections. Organizations like the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI) have halted technical and financial supports vital for civil society initiatives aimed at upholding democratic integrity.
Combating illicit electoral financing is essential to restore democratic governance in Honduras. The unraveling of former President Hernández’s connections with organized crime has exposed significant infiltration in political structures. To mitigate the influence of criminal networks, electoral authorities must audit political funding, ensuring compliance among candidates; presently, only 21% have adhered to the mandate for campaign donation accounts.
Electoral violence has surged amidst intense territorial and environmental disputes in Honduras. According to Ana Paola Hall, the National Electoral Council (CNE) president, threats against electoral authorities have escalated, while municipal candidates face increasing violence, including murders. Honduras ranks poorly on the Global Peace Index, reflecting systemic corruption and crimes which often implicate extractive industries.
Authorities must guarantee free and fair electoral processes, recognizing that financial backing for elections has been secured through the National Congress. It is essential for decision-makers to establish mechanisms for overseeing campaign financing and fostering coordination with the Electoral Crimes Prosecutor’s Office. Furthermore, the U.S. should reinstate cooperation to bolster electoral integrity and manage funding for both civil society and electoral institutions in Honduras to ensure free and transparent elections.
The upcoming elections in Honduras face significant threats due to halted U.S. cooperation and internal turmoil among political parties. Authorities need to ensure electoral integrity by enhancing accountability and transparency in financing. Furthermore, the U.S. must restore its support to safeguard democracy in Honduras and mitigate violence associated with organized crime during this critical electoral period.
Original Source: www.wola.org
