In 2024, China failed to meet a crucial climate target as emissions increased slightly due to coal dependence, despite a rise in renewable energy. Carbon intensity decreased by 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent target, raising concerns about compliance with the Paris Agreement. Analysts predict challenges in meeting long-term commitments as industrial growth keeps energy demand rising.
In 2024, China did not meet a significant climate objective as carbon emissions rose slightly, primarily due to the continued reliance on coal, despite the country’s record expansion of renewable energy sources. Official figures from Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity, falling short of the targeted 3.9 percent and significantly trailing behind its goal of an 18 percent reduction from 2020 to 2025.
Due to these results, analysts have raised concerns about China’s commitment to the Paris Agreement, particularly in light of its status as the world’s highest emitter of greenhouse gases. The NBS report shows that carbon emissions increased when compared to the previous year, although the growth rate has been less significant than in prior periods. Experts have suggested that China may have already reached peak emissions prior to its 2030 objective, although confirming this will take additional time and data.
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target. This is a key test of China’s commitment to its pledges under the agreement.”
Despite being the largest source of global greenhouse gas emissions, China is a major player in renewable energy. The country aims to peak its carbon output by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Analysts speculate that a slowdown in economic growth and significant investments in renewable resources might mean emissions have plateaued, but determining this accurately will require more data.
Analyst David Fishman commented, “Regardless of whether it’s a peak or a plateau, I don’t see the structural conditions in place for meaningful (emissions) decline between now and the official peak (target) in 2030.” Currently, coal consumption continues to dominate, even as return on investment increases in the renewable sector.
Furthermore, Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst from Ember, noted that China’s energy-demand growth during industrial expansion is currently outpacing the development of clean energy infrastructure necessary to achieve sustainability in energy production. The NBS reported that total energy consumption saw a 4.3 percent increase compared to 2023.
Although coal still supplies over half of China’s energy needs, there has been a marked increase in renewable energy contributions. Yang emphasized that China is nearing a point where all new electricity demand could be met through renewable sources, at which time coal consumption should begin to decline in absolute figures.
China is anticipated to release details regarding its 15th Five-Year Plan, covering the period from 2026 to 2030, which will likely include updated goals pertaining to emissions and energy consumption. Additionally, the country is expected to submit revised emissions targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement, which aims to establish clearer plans for the years leading up to 2035. However, the initial submission deadline was missed, though UN officials remain optimistic about the majority of submissions occurring this year.
In summary, China’s missed climate target in 2024 reflects challenges in effectively reducing carbon emissions amidst a strong reliance on coal, despite significant investments in renewable energy. Analysts express skepticism about the nation’s ability to fulfill its Paris Agreement commitments, given the current trajectory and industrial growth projections. The forthcoming Five-Year Plan and revised NDCs will be critical in determining future emissions goals, further establishing China’s climate action framework.
Original Source: www.news-journal.com
