China missed a critical climate target for 2024, with a slight increase in emissions. Official data indicated a 3.4% decrease in carbon intensity, falling short of the 3.9% goal. Experts warn of significant challenges in reaching the country’s 2030 emissions targets, amidst ongoing coal reliance and industrial growth pressures.
Official data reveal that China fell short of a significant climate target in 2024, as emissions slightly increased, fueled by persistent coal reliance despite achieving record renewable energy additions. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 3.4 percent decrease in carbon intensity, failing to meet the 3.9 percent target, indicating a lack of progress towards an 18 percent reduction goal from 2020 to 2025.
Despite the increase in carbon emissions being relatively minor compared to previous years, analysts are uncertain if China has reached its peak emissions ahead of the anticipated 2030 milestone. Experts assert that meeting the ambitious goal of reducing carbon intensity by 65 percent from 2005 levels by 2030 will be immensely challenging. According to Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, significant reductions are necessary in the following years to fulfill this commitment.
China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is simultaneously recognized for its dominance in renewable energy. The country aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and attain net-zero status by 2060. Nonetheless, analysts have suggested that emissions may have already stabilized due to slower growth and rapid renewable infrastructure expansion. Determining an official peak in emissions will require additional data over the coming years.
David Fishman from the Lantau Group expressed doubts regarding structural changes necessary for significant emissions reductions before the 2030 target. He predicted that coal usage will remain dominant until new nuclear and hydro resources become operational around 2030. Muyi Yang from Ember emphasized that industrial growth is currently impeding climate objectives, noting the increased energy demand that surpasses clean energy advancement.
As of the latest report, total energy consumption in China rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023. Despite coal comprising over half the energy supply, renewables saw significant growth. Yang commented on the potential transition to renewables fulfilling all new electricity demands, which would subsequently lead to the decline of coal power as the primary energy source.
Later this year, Beijing plans to unveil its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030, which will likely include updated emissions and energy targets. Furthermore, China missed the February deadline for submitting revised emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, a move anticipated by United Nations officials this year.
In summary, China has not achieved its climate targets for 2024, experiencing a slight rise in emissions despite progress in renewable energy production. The country is challenged to meet its long-term objectives and commitments under the Paris Agreement. Analysts emphasize the need for structural changes and energy reforms to align industrial growth with sustainable energy practices and meet future emissions goals.
Original Source: www.communitynewspapergroup.com
