China missed a major climate target in 2024, with emissions slightly rising and ongoing reliance on coal, despite increased renewable energy capacity. The country’s carbon intensity fell by only 3.4%, failing to meet the target of 3.9%. Experts indicate that significant challenges remain in achieving future climate commitments, particularly a 65% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030, as heavy industrial demand continues to inhibit advances in cleaner energy.
Recent official data indicates that China failed to meet a significant climate target in 2024, with a slight increase in emissions and coal continuing to dominate energy production. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), carbon intensity fell by 3.4 percent, which was below the official target of 3.9 percent. Analysts observed that these figures reflect China’s struggle to adhere to its commitments under the Paris climate agreement.
The emissions data suggests that, despite small increases in carbon output, China may have reached peak emissions earlier than anticipated, ahead of its 2030 target. However, experts emphasize the challenges ahead, noting that a decrease of 65 percent in carbon intensity from 2005 levels is necessary by 2030 to fulfill commitments under the Paris Agreement. Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, remarked on the considerable difficulties China faces in reducing carbon emissions significantly in the coming years.
Although China ranks as the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, it is also a leader in renewable energy generation. The nation aspires to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. Some analysts predict that slowing economic growth and an increase in renewable energy sources could facilitate a decline in emissions during the year. However, data collection over the next few years will be required to confirm the actual peak of emissions.
The current expansion of China’s industrial sector continues to hinder meaningful progress towards achieving climate objectives. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst at think tank Ember, highlights that the rapid growth in energy demand outpaces the development of clean energy infrastructure. He emphasized the need for reforms to ensure that industrial expansion does not occur at the expense of sustainable energy practices.
Total energy consumption saw a rise of 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal constituting more than half of the country’s energy mix; however, a significant increase in renewables was also noted. Analysts believe China is nearing a pivotal point where all additional electricity demand will be sourced from renewable energy, leading to a potential decline in coal power generation. This transition relies on crossing the threshold where renewable sources meet new demand levels.
Later this year, China is anticipated to unveil the details of its 15th Five-Year Plan covering the 2026 to 2030 period, which is likely to include revised emissions and energy goals. Additionally, the country is expected to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, which were initially due in February. While China did not meet the initial deadline, there is an expectation that many nations will submit their NDCs in the current year.
In summary, China has not met its crucial climate commitments, facing increased emissions and challenges in reducing carbon intensity. Despite strong growth in renewable energy, coal continues to be a dominant energy source. Experts emphasize the urgent need for infrastructure and policy reforms to align industrial growth with sustainable energy goals. Upcoming plans and updated emissions targets will be critical in assessing China’s future climate strategies.
Original Source: www.france24.com
