China missed its key climate target in 2024, with emissions slightly rising, as coal remained a primary energy source despite record renewable energy additions. The country fell short of reducing carbon intensity by 3.9 percent, achieving only a 3.4 percent decrease instead. Experts express concerns about the feasibility of meeting future climate pledges, emphasizing necessary structural reforms in the energy sector.
On February 28, it was reported that China has failed to meet an important climate goal for 2024, as emissions slightly increased despite a record addition of renewable energy sources. Official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that the country’s carbon intensity decreased by 3.4 percent, falling short of the 3.9 percent target. This also signals a setback in its aim to achieve an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
The rise in carbon emissions has prompted analysts to evaluate whether China might have already reached its peak emissions ahead of the targeted timeline of 2030. However, experts emphasize that achieving the goal of a 65 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2030 will be incredibly challenging. Mr. Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, stated, “Even with optimistic assumptions for 2025, carbon dioxide intensity must fall by 22 percent in (the period) 2026-2030 to meet China’s key Paris target.”
Despite being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, China is simultaneously a leader in renewable energy. The nation has set a goal to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and aims for net zero by 2060. While some analysts predicted that decreasing growth and increasing renewable energy production would lead to a decline in emissions in 2024, substantial industrial growth is currently impeding progress toward these climate goals.
Mr. Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, noted that rapid growth in the industrial sector has resulted in energy demand expanding beyond the pace at which clean energy infrastructure can be established. To alleviate this issue, reforms are necessary to enhance flexibility in the energy market and expand clean energy infrastructure, ensuring sustainable energy consumption.
The NBS reported that total energy consumption in China rose by 4.3 percent compared to 2023, with coal still representing over half of the country’s energy supply. Yet, the increase in renewables was significant in 2024. “China is fast approaching the stage where all incremental electricity demand will be satisfied by renewable sources,” Mr. Yang added. Once this milestone is reached, coal utilization might begin to decline substantially.
Details regarding China’s upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 are expected to be announced later in 2025, which will likely include revised emissions and energy targets. Furthermore, in February, China was anticipated to submit its updated emissions targets under the Paris climate agreement, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), although this deadline was missed.
In conclusion, China has not met its 2024 climate goals, experiencing a slight rise in emissions as coal continues to dominate the energy sector. With challenges ahead, experts stress that significant reforms and infrastructure enhancements are needed to ensure progress towards reducing carbon intensity and achieving future climate commitments. The effectiveness of China’s transition to renewable energy will be closely watched, as it works towards its pledges under the Paris Agreement.
Original Source: www.straitstimes.com
