China missed a key climate target in 2024 as emissions slightly increased despite record additions in renewable energy. Official data indicates carbon intensity fell short of goals, raising concerns about long-term climate commitments. Analysts suggest reforms are needed to align industrial growth with sustainability, while new energy plans are expected to be announced soon.
Recent official data reveals that China failed to meet a crucial climate target in 2024, showing a slight rise in emissions attributed to the enduring dominance of coal as an energy source, even amidst record growth in renewable energy installations. The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that carbon intensity, which gauges emissions relative to GDP, decreased by only 3.4 percent this year, falling short of the anticipated 3.9 percent reduction. This performance seriously undermines China’s commitment to achieving an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity from 2020 to 2025.
Although carbon emissions rose modestly compared to the previous year, they remain significantly lower than historical increases, leading experts to ponder whether the nation has peaked in emissions before its 2030 target date. However, analysts warned that maintaining progress towards reducing carbon intensity to achieve a 65 percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2030 will prove extremely challenging. Lauri Myllyvirta, a lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, asserted that further reductions of 22 percent in carbon intensity are crucial during the 2026-2030 period to meet China’s Paris Agreement obligations.
Despite being the largest contributor to greenhouse gases, China is emerging as a major force in the renewable energy sector. The government aims to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and attain net zero emissions by 2060. Some experts anticipated that deceleration in economic growth and swift renewable energy expansion would lead to a decrease in emissions in 2024. However, accurately determining when emissions peak will require several additional years of data analysis.
According to Muyi Yang, a senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, rapid growth in the industrial sector has impeded progress towards climate objectives. Currently, energy demand within carbon-intensive industries is increasing at a rate that surpasses the expansion of clean energy infrastructure. To ensure that industrial growth does not compromise future sustainability, reforms enhancing market flexibility and the development of renewable energy resources are essential. The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 4.3 percent increase in total energy consumption compared to 2023.
With over half of its energy sourced from coal, which remains a primary contributor to carbon emissions, China continues to witness significant growth in renewable energy sources. Analyst Yang noted that China is swiftly approaching a point where all incremental electricity demand will be met by renewables. Once this threshold is reached, coal power generation may begin to decrease in absolute terms. Beijing is set to announce the details of its 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026 to 2030 later this year, which is expected to update emissions and energy goals. Additionally, in February, China was due to submit revised emissions targets under the Paris Agreement, but this deadline was missed; UN officials anticipate most countries will submit their targets this year.
In summary, China has fallen short of a critical climate objective in 2024, showing a rise in emissions despite increased renewable energy installations. This development raises concerns about the nation’s ability to adhere to its commitments under the Paris Agreement. Immediate reforms are necessary to ensure that industrial growth aligns with sustainable energy goals. The forthcoming Five-Year Plan and updated emission targets could play a pivotal role in steering the country’s climate strategy moving forward.
Original Source: www.france24.com
