Latin America faces a significant risk of U.S. partisan interventions in its upcoming elections, potentially undermining decades of democratic progress. The Trump administration’s alliances with populist leaders like Bolsonaro and Noboa may signal a shift towards autocratic tendencies across the region. Heightened vigilance and a commitment to democracy by international organizations will be crucial in safeguarding electoral integrity in the face of external influences.
In 2023, Latin America and the Caribbean will witness numerous presidential and legislative elections, reminiscent of a time when U.S. intervention dominated the region’s political landscape. This year, however, the U.S. is poised to partake in a more aggressive and partisan manner, particularly favoring candidates aligned with President Donald Trump’s populism and disdain for democratic checks and balances. Such interventions could jeopardize the democratic progress achieved over the past four decades.
Brazil exemplifies this concerning trend, particularly through the indictment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of Trump, by the Brazilian Supreme Court. Bolsonaro has sought support from Trump amidst his legal challenges, leading to a lawsuit by the Trump Media & Technology Group against Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The backdrop of this legal action raises questions about the blurred lines between personal and political interests in their relationship.
The interplay of social media, misinformation, and far-right ambitions is highlighted by the actions of leaders in the region. Elon Musk’s reinstatement of accounts affiliated with Bolsonaro, despite judicial restrictions, showcases the intersection of business and politics in Latin America. This environment fosters populism and potentially undermines the democratic fabric, as seen in the dealings of prominent U.S. officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio with controversial leaders.
As elections unfold this year, opportunities arise to shape alliances in favor of Trump-supporting candidates, such as Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, positioned against leftist Luisa González. Noboa’s pro-Trump sentiments could attract U.S. backing, especially given his narrow victory in the first electoral round. Other electoral contests may similarly provide the Trump administration with avenues to bolster populist leadership across various Latin American countries,
In 2025, Honduras and Bolivia will host elections that could facilitate a consolidation of right-leaning candidates, particularly in light of Xiomara Castro’s inability to run due to constitutional restrictions. Argentine leader Javier Milei, who seeks to radically reform the Argentine state, poses as a valuable ally for Trump’s political ambitions, with upcoming legislative elections crucial for his political survival.
In conclusion, the risk of the Monroe Doctrine re-emerging underscores the urgent need for collaboration among international organizations to safeguard democracy in Latin America. Vigilance against U.S.-influenced partisan interventions, including those online, is crucial. This year’s elections will be pivotal in determining whether U.S. influence promotes democracy or undermines it in the region, requiring a global commitment to defend local electoral autonomy and freedom of expression.
The potential for U.S. partisan interventions in Latin America’s upcoming elections poses a significant threat to the democratic achievements of the last four decades. The alliances being formed between U.S. officials and far-right leaders raise concerns about the future of political integrity in the region. To counteract such trends, multilateral organizations must be prepared to defend democratic processes and the rights of sovereign nations when facing external pressures.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
