Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu signifies a pivotal step toward mending relations between Ethiopia and Somalia following a year of tensions fueled by Ethiopia’s MoU with Somaliland. This rapprochement aligns with the recent Ankara Declaration, endorsing regional collaboration on peace and economic growth despite lingering concerns regarding Egypt and Eritrea’s influence in the Horn of Africa.
In a notable diplomatic development, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently visited Mogadishu to meet Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This visit reciprocated Mohamud’s earlier trip to Addis Ababa and follows the signing of the Ankara Declaration in December 2024, which was aimed at resolving tensions that had arisen due to Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the breakaway region of Somaliland.
This meeting is perceived as a crucial step toward normalizing relations between Ethiopia and Somalia, which had been strained since January 2024. PM Abiy remarked on the importance of collaboration for peace, economic growth, and regional integration amidst the region’s abundant resources.
Somalia’s decision to maintain Ethiopia’s role in the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) reflects this warming relationship, especially as it had considered involving Egypt instead. Analysts view these developments as a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa, witnessing the ever-changing nature of alliances and relationships.
Constantinos Berhutesfa, a political analyst, emphasized the historical volatility of relationships among Horn of Africa states, noting that only Ethiopia-Kenya ties have remained relatively stable. Recent normalization efforts signify a potential limitation on the influence of Egypt and Eritrea, which sought to employ military tactics to isolate Ethiopia.
Furthermore, Somaliland’s new leadership has indicated a willingness to reassess the MoU with Ethiopia, which may lead to further shifts in the regional dynamics. The changing landscape also raises concerns about the implications of the Asmara tripartite agreement between Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt, which is now challenged by Somalia’s reinvigorated partnership with Ethiopia.
Despite the potential for improved relations, analysts caution that tensions remain. The ongoing discourse regarding Eritrea’s role in the region and Ethiopia’s past military conflicts raises questions about future stability. Recent comments by former President Mulatu Teshome regarding Eritrea’s destabilizing influence highlight these ongoing concerns.
Constantinos observed that while the increase in dialogue is positive, Eritrea might react negatively. The relationships between these countries will significantly affect stability in Somalia and concerns about possible support for Al-Shabaab by external actors linger.
The analyst emphasizes that Ethiopia’s need to stabilize its environment is paramount, suggesting that a regional peace summit could bolster Ethiopia’s international standing and serve as a catalyst for resolving conflicts. The focus should be on diplomatic efforts to restore Ethiopia’s position as a regional stabilizer by addressing underlying tensions, focusing on cooperation, and engaging international stakeholders.
He expressed hope that organizing a summit with various stakeholders could address these challenges, emphasizing that Ethiopia’s historical role in peacekeeping must be reaffirmed amidst regional instability. Ultimately, a formal and inclusive dialogue platform could pave the way for greater stability in the Horn of Africa.
The recent diplomatic engagement between Ethiopia and Somalia marks a significant milestone in stabilizing relations in the Horn of Africa, highlighting the critical importance of collaboration for regional growth and security. However, existing tensions with Eritrea and Egypt remain concerning, necessitating continued diplomatic dialogue and integrated efforts. Emphasizing Ethiopia’s role as a stabilizing regional force could enhance its influence while promoting peace and security throughout the area.
Original Source: www.thereporterethiopia.com
