Contrary to popular belief, Lake Chad is not shrinking; recent research shows an increase in its water volume since the 1980s. However, intensified rainfall raises flooding risks, compounded by conflict in the region. Local communities, historically reliant on the lake’s resources, must adapt to the impacts of climate change while addressing agricultural and security challenges. The Lutheran World Federation promotes sustainable practices in response to these difficulties.
Research indicates that Lake Chad is not shrinking as commonly believed. In fact, since the 1980s, the lake’s water volume has increased due to intensified rainfall. This rainfall, however, along with historical droughts, heightens the risk of flooding in the region, which is further complicated by ongoing conflicts that hinder community adaptation to climate change effects.
The Lake Chad Basin spans approximately 2.5 million square kilometers, touching eight nations, and is crucial for around 52 million people relying on its resources. The closed drainage system surrounding Lake Chad means that river inflows mainly dictate its water levels, strongly affected by precipitation in the area. As a shallow lake, variations in rainfall drastically impact its size and water volume.
Historically, the lake was once one of the largest globally, covering 25,000 km2 in the 1960s, but suffered severe reductions during the 1970s and 1980s. Recent findings show stabilization in its water extent over the past two decades. By 2022, Lake Chad’s surface water area allegedly reached up to 18,800 km2, indicating a seasonal recovery from stark reductions.
Despite these developments, parts of the lake, especially the northern pool, have not fully recovered. Factors contributing to this include changes in inflowing rivers and vegetation hindering water movement. Additionally, the region has faced increasingly erratic rainfall leading to flash floods following recent wet spells.
Flood impacts were particularly notable in 2022 and 2024, displacing millions and affecting agricultural land. A World Weather Attribution analysis estimated that rainfall intensity was amplified by climate change, making heavy precipitation much more likely. Trends suggest that flooding in the basin may intensify, potentially occurring every 2 to 5 years.
In response, local communities have adapted their agricultural practices to the lake’s fluctuating conditions. Techniques include crop diversification, planting fast-maturing vegetables, and seasonal fishing. However, the unpredictable climate complicates planning and can lead to catastrophic floods that devastate livelihoods.
Conflict arising from groups like Boko Haram exacerbates the situation, diminishing the ability of communities to rely on traditional agricultural strategies, as highlighted in a recent PLOS Climate study. The Lutheran World Federation supports various initiatives aimed at sustainable resource use and conflict resolution, assisting affected communities across the region.
One of the LWF’s projects aims to promote climate adaptation through nature-based solutions, including various agricultural and reforestation strategies. The project targets tree nurseries and diversification of crops to withstand climate unpredictability. Plans to introduce solar irrigation and facilitate access to drought-resistant seeds are in the works to tackle agriculture challenges and lessen the demands on fisheries.
Despite ongoing challenges from conflict and climate variability, the Lake Chad Basin has potential for sustainable development and poverty reduction through improved resource management. Experts advocate for holistic strategies to address climate resilience along with stabilization and peace efforts.
Lake Chad is experiencing a nuanced response to climate change, demonstrating resilience through improved water levels, yet facing increased flooding risks and historical conflict challenges. Sustainable adaptation strategies implemented by local communities are essential for future resilience. Comprehensive management and collaboration among the eight member nations are critical for leveraging the lake’s resources and mitigating potential humanitarian crises in the basin.
Original Source: news.mongabay.com
