President Embaló’s controversial parliament dissolution in December 2023 has led to political turmoil in Guinea-Bissau, with opposition threats of protests and internal disputes over his term length. An ECOWAS mediation attempt was met with hostility from Embaló, who favors French involvement, demonstrating a troubling divergence from regional cooperation. The outcomes of these events will not only determine Guinea-Bissau’s future but will also test ECOWAS’s credibility as a regional stabilizer.
In December 2019, President Umaro Mokhtar Sissoco Embaló was elected, initiating a five-year term that allowed for potential re-election in 2025. However, in December 2023, he controversially dissolved the parliament without scheduling new elections, prompting accusations from opposition parties that he is undermining the constitution to solidify his power. In response, these leaders have threatened protests and civil disobedience unless an election date is established.
A significant issue involves the conflicting interpretations regarding the end date of Embaló’s term. The opposition asserts his mandate concludes on February 27, 2025, as per constitutional guidelines, while a Supreme Court ruling controversially extends it to September 4, 2025, a decision rejected by opposition figures. This disagreement further intensifies the political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
In September 2024, President Embaló suggested he might forgo a second term. Yet, he later indicated he would reconsider, revealing the unpredictability surrounding the elections and contributing to the nation’s political tension. As events unfold, the stability of Guinea-Bissau remains uncertain.
ECOWAS intervened on March 3, 2025, with a high-ranking delegation sent to mediate the political crisis, but the mission was abruptly halted by President Embaló, who expressed hostility toward the mediators. Instead of facilitating dialogue, Embaló issued threats, suggesting that the organization remain uninvolved in what he termed as “internal affairs.”
Following this diplomatic failure, President Embaló confirmed intentions to seek a second term in the upcoming elections, demonstrating a dismissive attitude towards ECOWAS’s attempts at intervention. His choice of French engagement over regional cooperation hints at a growing alliance with France, compared to Guinea-Bissau’s past colonial ties with Portugal.
ECOWAS’s subsequent silence raises pertinent questions regarding its capacity to assert authority in Guinea-Bissau, reflecting a stark contrast with its decisive actions during political turmoil in The Gambia and military unrest in Niger. The organization’s response, or lack thereof, will likely set crucial precedents for future interventions within the region.
Despite his prior leadership role in ECOWAS from 2020 to 2021, President Embaló has consistently demonstrated a lack of strategic foresight in addressing the escalating domestic crisis, which threatens political unity and stability. His precarious position raises concerns about his reliance on potential foreign backing, particularly from France, in the face of turmoil.
Ultimately, the decisions made by President Embaló will significantly influence both Guinea-Bissau’s future and the effectiveness of ECOWAS in maintaining regional peace and stability. The situation demands urgent attention from notable peace mediators, including Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, to navigate the delicate dynamics at play in Bissau.
The political situation in Guinea-Bissau has reached a critical juncture as President Embaló’s actions challenge constitutional norms and regional stability. ECOWAS’s inability to exert influence amidst this turmoil raises significant concerns about its authority and effectiveness. As the future unfolds, both internal and external dynamics will play a pivotal role in shaping the nation’s path and the legitimacy of regional interventions.
Original Source: thepoint.gm
