Following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah faces a crisis characterized by loss and skepticism among Lebanese Shiites. The recent massive turnout at Nasrallah’s funeral provided critical support, reinforcing Hezbollah’s legitimacy amidst challenges to its arms and reconstruction efforts. This display of solidarity may influence the Lebanese government’s approach to the group moving forward, highlighting its sustained support.
Hezbollah is currently facing a significant crisis following intense confrontations with Israel, which resulted in substantial losses. The death of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has compounded the group’s challenges, prompting increased skepticism about its role in Lebanon. As Hezbollah grapples with criticism from its core constituency—the Lebanese Shiites—regarding the war’s impact amidst ongoing economic hardships that began after Lebanon’s financial collapse in 2019, it appears increasingly vulnerable to internal dissent.
In this critical juncture, Nasrallah’s funeral on February 23 provided a potential lifeline for Hezbollah, bolstering its domestic legitimacy. The massive turnout at the funeral was significant as it displayed solidarity among Hezbollah’s supporters, discouraging any government action that could undermine the group’s standing or lead to its disarmament.
Hezbollah’s strength lies not only in its military capabilities but also in its broad approval among Lebanese Shiites. In the May 2022 parliamentary elections, Hezbollah secured the highest number of votes from its community, signifying enduring support. Polling data from January and September 2024 indicates that between 89% and 93% of Lebanese Shiites continue to support the organization, reflecting its successful membership model that prioritizes engagement with the community.
The group’s immediate objectives now include maintaining its arms and ensuring post-war reconstruction aid reaches affected areas. In response to the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General Naim Qassem indicated a tactical adjustment, accepting limitations on armed presence south of the Litani River while claiming the right to retain arms in the north, contingent upon Lebanese consensus regarding a national defense strategy.
Another priority for Hezbollah is to facilitate reconstruction for the war-impacted community, with Qassem emphasizing the Lebanese government’s responsibility in this regard. Given the severe damage estimated between $8 billion and $11 billion, Hezbollah is under pressure to ensure that reconstruction funds materialize, warning of serious repercussions should aid failure occur.
The attendance at Nasrallah’s funeral served as a demonstration of strength for Hezbollah, with varying estimates on crowd size ranging from 200,000 to 1.4 million. A Beirut-based research firm ultimately estimated attendance at 700,000 to 900,000. This turnout reflects resilience in a time of crisis, contradicting claims that Hezbollah’s support base has diminished due to the recent war.
Hezbollah’s display of public support could influence the Lebanese government to refrain from taking any action against the group regarding its arms. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, acknowledging political realities, may feel compelled to work collaboratively with Hezbollah as his government navigates the complexities of post-war recovery without sparking conflict.
While many Shiite supporters back Hezbollah for practical reasons—including protection from external threats and social support—this relationship also embodies an emotional connection. The funeral attendance signified to both domestic rivals and the government that any aggression against Hezbollah could be viewed as an affront to the entire Shiite community, thereby solidifying Hezbollah’s position as a crucial player in Lebanon’s future dynamics.
In conclusion, Nasrallah’s funeral appears to have served as a pivotal moment for Hezbollah, reinforcing its support within the Shiite community at a time of ongoing crisis. The high turnout signifies not only communal solidarity but also acts as a deterrent against governmental action that could destabilize the group’s influence. As Hezbollah seeks to retain its arms and obtain essential reconstruction aid, its popularity remains a critical asset in navigating Lebanon’s complex political landscape. Ultimately, Hezbollah’s ability to maintain its support base amid these challenges will be influential in shaping its role in Lebanon moving forward.
Original Source: www.atlanticcouncil.org
