The likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia appears to be increasing, as indicated by General Abebe Teklehaymanot (Jobe). He underscores two motivations for war: control over the Assab port and the push for regime change in Eritrea. The potential for foreign intervention from states like Egypt and the U.S. adds another layer to this precarious situation.
Recent predictions from various political and military analysts suggest an increasing likelihood of conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, particularly following the collapse of a previously warm relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. This deterioration occurred within a mere three years, although the underlying reasons remain largely ambiguous to the public.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known by his nickname Jobe, has stated that both nations appear to be mobilizing militarily, further heightening tensions. During an interview, he remarked, “The two countries are likely heading to war,” citing several indicators that suggest this trajectory.
Jobe identified two potential motivations for such a conflict. Firstly, there could be an aim to gain control of the Assab port, which lies only sixty kilometers from Ethiopia’s northeastern border. This site, though situated in Eritrea, is viewed by many as lost to Ethiopia due to past government negligence, leading to debates about responsibility for this perceived loss.
Secondly, he noted that a possible motivation could be regime change concerning the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), led by President Afwerki. Many politically active Eritreans believe that the United States had previously supported this agenda, although the shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration complicates this assertion.
Jobe also speculated that various international actors, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, may intervene in the impending conflict for their strategic interests. Looking back, Jobe expressed discontent regarding missed opportunities to neutralize specific threats during the earlier Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict from 1998-2000.
He recounted differing strategies within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, reflecting on how past leadership decisions ultimately influenced present conditions. Jobe criticized the choice to permit Eritrea to rebuild its military following the 2000 peace treaty. The ensuing years were characterized by a stalemate of “no peace, no war” until relations were normalized in 2018, only to deteriorate once more within a short period.
Should conflict arise between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Jobe warns that the Tigray region may become the principal battleground, echoing concerns voiced by current TPLF leaders in Mekelle.
The article reiterates the escalating tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, emphasizing the potential for armed conflict driven by both territorial ambitions and regime change agendas. The analysis by General Jobe underscores the complex historical context and highlights the involvement of international powers, suggesting that these elements may significantly impact the conflict’s development. The uncertain trajectory of relations between the two nations calls for careful observation of the evolving situation.
Original Source: borkena.com
