Predictions of potential conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia have intensified following the breakdown of amicable relations between their leaders. General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe, identified motivations for war, including territorial disputes and regime change, and speculated on possible foreign intervention. Historical tensions and military mobilizations underline the dire possibility of conflict.
Recent predictions by military professionals underscore the escalating tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia, indicating a potential conflict. The warm relations previously established between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed have deteriorated within a mere three years, leaving the underlying reasons somewhat ambiguous to the public.
General Abebe Teklehaymanot, known as Jobe during his time as a guerrilla fighter, commented on the likelihood of war in a recent interview, affirming, “The two countries are likely heading to war.” He referenced visible military mobilizations by both nations and various factors suggesting an impending conflict.
Jobe pointed to two significant motivations for a potential war. Firstly, the desire to seize Assab, a crucial port merely sixty kilometers from the Ethiopian border, highlighted Ethiopia’s historical loss of access due to previous administrations. Secondly, he suggested the conflict could aim at the removal of the current ruling party in Eritrea, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), aligning with a regime change agenda.
He raised concerns about potential foreign intervention from nations such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United States, each motivated by their strategic interests. Jobe lamented past opportunities to neutralize Eritrea’s military strength during the 1998-2000 conflict, expressing regret over missed decisive actions that could alter the current landscape.
Additionally, he critiqued post-war decisions allowing Eritrea to rebuild its military capabilities. The period of “no peace, no war” ended when relations normalized under Abiy Ahmed in 2018, but deteriorated again within a few years. Jobe cautioned that Tigray could become the main battleground if a war were to erupt between the two countries.
In summary, the potential for renewed conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia is heightened, as indicated by military figures and recent movements by both nations. With motivations ranging from territorial ambitions to regime change and possible foreign intervention, the situation remains delicate. Historical reflections illustrate the long-standing tensions that could influence future actions, with concerns about the implications not only for the two countries but for the region as a whole.
Original Source: borkena.com
