Hezbollah’s power has diminished significantly after a conflict with Israel, with its financial crisis and political influence waning. Lebanon is experiencing a shift in governance, highlighted by the election of Joseph Aoun as president, amid widespread public support for reform and a desire for reconstruction following years of turmoil. Experts express uncertainty regarding Hezbollah’s future, as some Lebanese seek alternatives in light of deteriorating social conditions.
Hezbollah has experienced a significant decrease in its political and military power since its inception in 1982, particularly following a war with Israel that severely impacted its leadership and resources. Despite a grand funeral for its late leader, Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s influence in Lebanon and the wider region is diminishing.
Michael Young, a senior editor at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, stated, “The Lebanese are certainly ready for a new period in the country where the state has a monopoly over weapons.” While Hezbollah remains active, its future transformation is uncertain.
The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, previously a critical supply line for Hezbollah, has intensified its challenges, leaving the militia isolated and financially strained. It struggles to support families of injured members and to rebuild its strongholds devastated by Israeli attacks.
The political landscape of Lebanon is shifting, with many citizens expressing a desire to end Iranian dominance and deemphasize Hezbollah’s role. The election of Joseph Aoun as president and Nawaf Salam as prime minister symbolizes this transformative period, garnering support from the United States, France, and Saudi Arabia.
Aoun’s inaugural visit to Saudi Arabia has been perceived as a vital step in repairing bilateral relations, with promises of reactivating military funding and discussions on resuming the trade of Lebanese goods.
However, some Lebanese express dissatisfaction with the ongoing political transition. Following significant losses and a ceasefire mandated by external forces, Hezbollah supporters are lamenting the changes. As noted by Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, the Shiite community experiences a sense of mourning for lost influence under Nasrallah.
The Israel-Hezbollah conflict intensified in 2024, with serious strikes leading to Nasrallah’s death, further weakening Hezbollah’s political strength as independent parties might form a new government after a prolonged impasse. Experts emphasize that while Hezbollah has yet to thoroughly reassess its position, there is little sign of immediate change in its strategies.
Lebanon continues to grapple with a severe economic crisis, with significant currency devaluation and widespread poverty impacting daily life. The World Bank estimates that repairing damages from the conflict will require $8.5 billion. Citizens forced from their homes express frustration over the cycle of violence, as represented by university student Ali, who voiced concerns about being caught between Hezbollah and Israel.
International financial support remains contingent upon the disarmament of armed groups like Hezbollah. The recent political atmosphere allows Lebanon to envision stability and re-integration into the Arab community. President Aoun’s upcoming diplomacy efforts indicate a commitment to pursuing peace, evidenced by his remarks at the Arab League summit.
In Ghaddar’s analysis, while Hezbollah has not disappeared, increasing socio-economic hardships prompt the community to seek alternatives, illustrating a significant shift in public sentiment. “Hezbollah is a new entity, which cannot provide, cannot protect, obviously cannot preserve, and cannot rebuild,” she stated, underscoring the challenges facing the militia in this evolving landscape.
Hezbollah’s declining influence following the recent conflict poses both challenges and opportunities for Lebanon. With the shift in political dynamics and the desire for reform, new leadership could help the nation stabilize and recover from prolonged turmoil. The embrace of a new era devoid of Iranian dominance reflects a broader longing among the Lebanese populace for peace and reconstruction amid ongoing economic struggles. As the nation navigates these changes, the endurance of Hezbollah as a powerful entity is called into question, signifying a potential transformation for Lebanon’s future.
Original Source: www.arabnews.pk
