Iraq’s political landscape has experienced significant changes post-Saddam Hussein’s regime, with Shiite parties gaining prominence but facing fragmentation and rivalries enhanced by external influences from the US and Iran. The recent elections highlighted the growing divisions, particularly the rise of Muqtada al-Sadr and the challenges confronting traditional leaders like Nouri al-Maliki. As Iraq prepares for the 2025 elections, the potential for evolving alliances and governance strategies remains pivotal to the country’s future stability.
Since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iraq’s political landscape has been significantly changed, with Shiite political parties gaining prominence. This shift has, however, been accompanied by notable instability characterized by fragmentation, intense rivalries, and external influences from both the United States and Iran, leaving Iraq’s future precariously balanced.
The fragmentation of Iraq’s Shiite political landscape is a legacy of the 2003 regime collapse. Under Sunni-dominated Ba’athist rule, the Shiite population faced systematic oppression. Following Saddam’s fall, Shiite parties like al-Dawa and the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) re-entered the political arena, forming alliances yet contending with profound ideological divides and internal power struggles.
While factions aligned with Iran gained ground, figures like Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist Movement pursued independence. The Iranian-backed Coordination Framework remains influential yet fractured, complicating governance and policymaking in Iraq. Consequently, this disunity has hindered the Shiite factions from projecting a cohesive political front.
The 2021 parliamentary elections showcased the deepening rifts among Shiite groups, reflecting a shift in power. Muqtada al-Sadr’s Movement emerged victorious with 73 seats, enhancing his position over long-standing parties like Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law Coalition, which suffered a decline, securing only 33 seats due to rising discontent with his governance.
Following the elections, political fragmentation escalated when al-Sadr ordered his MPs to resign, highlighting his dissatisfaction with the prevailing corrupt system. His departure allowed the Coordination Framework to form a government, consolidating Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s authority.
As Iraq navigates its political landscape, shifting alliances are evident, exemplified by the defection of Alia Nassif to al-Sudani’s bloc. The Coordination Framework is expected to forge a broad electoral coalition to counter al-Sadr’s influence, although internal divisions complicate these efforts. Concurrently, the Badr Organization is reevaluating its political strategies amid pressing challenges.
Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s ascendancy has reshaped Iraq’s power dynamics, appealing to citizens through his governance-focused approach amidst the backdrop of sectarian politics. His growing popularity places him at odds with traditional Shiite leaders, suggesting a broader shift towards reform-oriented leadership in Iraq.
With the 2025 parliamentary elections approaching, the political environment remains unstable. Key figures including al-Sadr and al-Maliki are maneuvering for influence, while the Coordination Framework grapples with its internal conflicts. Preparations for the elections are underway, emphasizing the need for a structured electoral process to facilitate democracy.
Jassim Al-Moussawi has noted the sluggish momentum among political parties as they contact each other regarding election strategies, suggesting further complications ahead. Speculation surrounds Muqtada al-Sadr’s potential return to the political sphere, which has significant ramifications for the upcoming elections and the future political landscape.
Various scenarios are emerging as Iraq heads toward crucial elections, including a potential resurgence of al-Sadr’s movement, or the Coordination Framework solidifying power through effective negotiations. In parallel, al-Sudani’s independent governance approach might alter entrenched political dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges.
Significantly, external factors such as the enduring US-Iran rivalry may influence Iraq’s political future, with various factions aligning according to these foreign interests. Political analysts underscore the necessity for Iraqi factions to establish consensus amid external pressures to foster stability. As senior political analyst Mujash’e al-Tamimi articulated, “The future is a puzzle where the missing pieces are constantly shifting. Stability will depend on whether Iraq’s political factions can find common ground, even as external pressures reshape the board.”
In summary, Iraq’s Shiite political factions are currently navigating a landscape marked by fragmentation and deep rivalries. The dynamics of alliances are shifting as political leaders such as Muqtada al-Sadr and Mohammed Shia al-Sudani emerge as key players. As the 2025 elections approach, the potential for renewed conflicts and transforming political structures remains high. The outcomes will significantly depend on the ability of these factions to unite and adapt to both internal and external influences, with the future of Iraq’s governance hanging in the balance.
Original Source: shafaq.com
