Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be benefitting from favorable developments including the fall of Assad’s regime in Syria, potential resolution of the Kurdish conflict, and improved economic indicators. However, significant uncertainties persist that may complicate Erdogan’s ambitions and Turkey’s geopolitical stability.
In the current geopolitical climate, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to be experiencing a fortuitous phase. Having maintained power for over two decades, Erdogan seeks to extend his influence beyond the expiration of his current term in 2028. With several favorable developments unfolding simultaneously, he stands to potentially achieve his foreign policy, security, and economic objectives more so than he has in over a decade, as noted by Emre Peker of Eurasia Group.
Several key developments warrant attention: First is the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which Erdogan has long sought. The transition may encourage the return of over 80,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey and enhance Turkey’s economic and strategic stance in Syria, facilitated by military collaboration with the new Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa.
Second, there is progress regarding the Kurdish issue. The PKK, a prominent Kurdish militant group, has expressed willingness to cease its armed struggle after 40 years, which could potentially resolve a longstanding conflict that has incurred significant casualties.
Additionally, a prospective ceasefire in Ukraine holds promise for Turkey’s construction sector, with Erdogan positioning Turkey as a potential mediator between conflicting parties. His positive relationship with Russia might serve Turkey well as a crucial supplier of arms to the EU amid concerns regarding diminishing U.S. defense commitments in Europe.
Economically, Turkey’s outlook has improved, albeit with inflation still at 39%. However, this represents the lowest inflation rate in nearly two years, with a cautious reduction in central bank rates contributing to GDP growth that exceeded expectations last year.
Despite these favorable conditions, significant uncertainties loom. The situation in Syria remains precarious, with the risk that it could devolve into further conflict, undermining Erdogan’s ambitions for economic involvement in the region. Peker warns that failure to establish stability could lead to renewed insecurities along Turkey’s border.
Furthermore, resolving the Kurdish question poses challenges, as Erdogan must navigate the political landscape delicately to win sufficient support while balancing the expectations of nationalist partners.
Lastly, geopolitical dynamics concerning the U.S. could complicate Erdogan’s plans. While Turkey stands to gain from increased European defense spending, it may not necessarily translate to direct benefits for Turkey. The repercussions of a diminished U.S. security presence could have severe implications for Turkey’s strategic landscape.
Collectively, these factors present a mixed picture for Erdogan. While there are numerous reasons for optimism, the unfolding events may not definitively strengthen Turkey’s geopolitical position, necessitating careful navigation of both domestic and international affairs.
In summary, while Turkey under President Erdogan is experiencing several positive developments, including potential resolutions to longstanding conflicts and economic growth, significant challenges remain. The geopolitical landscape is fraught with uncertainties that could undermine Turkey’s aspirations and stability. Erdogan’s path forward will require adept handling of complex political dynamics within Turkey and the broader region.
Original Source: www.gzeromedia.com
