Climate scientists indicate that climate change is intensifying, making the cooling effects of La Niña less effective. The IMD forecasts an early summer with higher temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. India experienced record warmth in February, indicating ongoing changes in weather patterns due to human-caused climate change and ENSO fluctuations.
Climate change is intensifying, and the cooling effects of La Niña may become less effective in the future due to increasing temperatures, according to climate scientists. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an early summer with above-normal temperatures and prolonged heatwaves. Moreover, the country recorded its warmest February since 1901, along with the fifth lowest rainfall since 2001.
Human-induced climate change is leading to an emerging norm characterized by warmer winters and shorter springs. Scientists underscore the significance of yearly weather pattern variations, known as ‘year-to-year variability.’ “Updates from the IMD indicate an unusually dry winter this year,” stated Arpita Mondal, an associate professor at IIT Bombay.
Arpita Mondal further explained that rainfall serves as a natural cooling mechanism that helps mitigate rising temperatures. Raghu Murtugudde, an earth system scientist also at IIT Bombay, noted, “I observe a global wave of temperature anomalies during December through February correlated with jet stream fluctuations.” Jet streams, which are powerful winds in the atmosphere, greatly affect weather patterns by repositioning themselves.
The impacts of El Niño and La Niña, both stages of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are also influential in recent climatic trends. Vimal Mishra, chair professor of civil engineering at IIT Gandhinagar, remarked, “El Niño-like conditions lead to warmer springs, while La Niña results in cooler days.” ENSO cycles typically vary between warm El Niño phases and cooler La Niña phases, lasting between two to seven years.
Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasted that the weak La Niña, which emerged in December 2024, is expected to be short-lived. They predict a 60 percent chance of La Niña re-emerging in mid-2024. The Copernicus Climate Change Service reported temperatures from March 2024 to February 2025 at 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1990-2020 average and 1.59 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Murtugudde pointed out anomalies in the usual La Niña patterns, stating, “There are cold waters in the tropical Pacific, but some warm anomalies have persisted in the eastern Pacific.” These changes seem connected to record-setting temperatures in 2023.
Projections suggest that El Niño events could become more frequent and intense in a warming future, with approximately half of these events being classified as extreme. During the summer of 2024, India experienced 536 heatwave days—the highest in 14 years—with the northwestern region recording the hottest June since 1901.
Mishra asserted that, “The most significant and concerning indicator is climate change. Even under likely ENSO-neutral conditions this year, we cannot overlook potential heatwaves, as temperatures have already been elevated in March.” The WMO anticipates a 60 percent likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions from March to May 2025. He further noted, “Under climate change, an El Niño may present numerous issues, whereas La Niña may not provide any relief.
In summary, climate change continues to strengthen, diminishing the efficacy of La Niña in moderating temperatures. The India Meteorological Department reveals early summer predictions accompanied by heatwaves, corroborating climate scientists’ concerns regarding rising heat trends. Compounding factors like shifting jet streams and the ongoing oscillation between El Niño and La Niña phases contribute to this crisis. As projections indicate increasing intensity and frequency of heatwaves, it is crucial to address climate change proactively to mitigate harmful effects.
Original Source: www.theweek.in
