The IMF forecasts strong economic growth for Guyana, driven by a booming oil sector and advancements in the non-oil economy, projecting a GDP growth of 10.25% in 2025, while inflation may rise to 4%. The budget deficit is expected to narrow significantly, and the medium-term outlook remains favorable despite potential risks.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reported positive projections for Guyana’s economic growth, linking this to significant advancements in both the oil and non-oil sectors. The IMF team highlighted that the nation is experiencing one of the highest real GDP growth rates globally, estimated at an average of 47 percent for the period of 2022–2024.
For 2025, the IMF forecasts Guyana’s GDP to increase by approximately 10.25 percent, with the non-oil economy expected to grow by 13 percent. Additionally, inflation is projected to rise slightly to around 4 percent by the end of 2025, as compared to about 3 percent by the end of 2024.
The budget deficit in Guyana is anticipated to decrease to below 5 percent of GDP in 2025, down from 7.3 percent in 2024. This decline is attributed to increased oil revenues offsetting rising expenditure. The current account surplus is also expected to moderate, indicating ongoing strong economic performance despite potential import increases due to oil sector developments.
The medium-term outlook remains positive, with an average growth projection of 14 percent annually for the next five years, bolstered by both oil production and growth in the non-oil sector. The non-oil GDP is anticipated to grow by around 6.75 percent per year. However, risks from overheating, commodity price volatility, and climate shocks could pose challenges to sustained balanced growth.
In its report, the IMF urged Guyana’s authorities to prioritize macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability while fostering inclusive growth. They commend social transfer policies that have contributed to improved disposable income and poverty reduction. Although no signs of overheating are currently evident, continuous monitoring and adaptations in fiscal policies are recommended to maintain balance in economic expansion.
In summary, the IMF’s report underscores Guyana’s robust economic transformation, driven by the oil sector along with significant growth in the non-oil sectors. While growth rates are promising for the upcoming years, attention to potential risks and the enhancement of social policies remain crucial for sustainable development. The emphasis on macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth will be vital as Guyana navigates its economic future.
Original Source: newssourcegy.com
