Sudan’s civil conflict, nearing two years, has resulted in a humanitarian disaster with 30 million people needing urgent support and 12 million displaced. Initial efforts for democratic governance have disintegrated, leading to military control. As the RSF and SAF battle for power, foreign intervention complicates the landscape, resulting in significant civilian casualties and suffering.
As Sudan approaches the second anniversary of its civil conflict, the country continues to suffer greatly due to the violence of rival factions. In February, the UN Secretary-General highlighted the “staggering scale and brutality” of the crisis, indicating that approximately 30 million individuals urgently require humanitarian assistance. Furthermore, around 9 million people have been displaced and an additional 3 million have fled to neighboring countries.
The conflict’s roots trace back to 2018-2019, when protests successfully led to the ousting of autocratic ruler Omar al-Bashir, initiating a movement towards democratic governance. A joint civilian-military Sovereignty Council was established; however, this partnership was abruptly terminated in October 2021 by the military, which reinstated military leadership under General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his deputy, Lt. General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The RSF, originally the Janjaweed militia notorious for violence in Darfur, grew from 5,000 to 100,000 fighters by early 2023. Efforts to revive democratic governance fell short, leading to a continued military regime under the generals since January 2022. The situation escalated significantly in April 2023 when Dagalo’s RSF launched coordinated attacks on army bases, leading to widespread conflict across Sudan.
By November 2023, the RSF had gained substantial territory, controlling most of Darfur and significant areas of Khartoum. This rapid advancement resulted in dire humanitarian conditions, with estimates indicating that 150,000 fatalities occurred by June 2024, alongside the displacement of another 12 million people. Reports suggested the RSF intentionally destroyed food reserves, exacerbating starvation in already vulnerable regions.
International discourse has neglected Sudan’s dire situation as the world focuses on other crises. Humanitarian assistance from the U.S. has been critical, amounting to $2.3 billion since 2023, although future aid is uncertain. In response to the deteriorating conditions, the UAE provided $200 million in support, totaling $600 million since the conflict began.
After a period of initial RSF successes, counter-attacks by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) began to regain momentum due to strategic changes, recruitment efforts, and alliances with local militias. By early 2025, most of Khartoum was back under SAF control, raising civilian casualty rates significantly owing to increased violence against non-combatants.
The conflict has also been fuelled by foreign interventions, particularly from the UAE, which actively supported Dagalo and the RSF while the SAF sought assistance from Iran and Russia. With the engagement of these foreign powers, the conflict escalated, transforming into a regional proxy war involving various nations and their interests.
Despite fluctuating levels of international involvement, the U.S. has largely relegated Sudan to a lesser priority, primarily focusing on humanitarian aid rather than a robust path towards peace. Economic sanctions have been imposed on key figures from both sides in response to atrocities, but their impact remains uncertain.
Currently, Sudan’s territory is effectively partitioned, with the RSF controlling major parts, particularly in Darfur. General al-Burhan has expressed intentions for a wartime government reflecting military dominance, while Dagalo has allied with other insurgent groups to establish a competing political framework. The path to democracy is clouded with division and uncertainty, leaving activists and civilians distressed about the potential for future governance.
In summary, Sudan’s civil conflict has led to immense suffering, humanitarian crises, and foreign interventions that further complicate the situation. As the humanitarian needs grow, efforts for democratic governance have stalled, and military factions continue to vie for power. External influences have exacerbated the conflict, leading to widespread displacement and violence against civilians. The road ahead is fraught with challenges, as the potential for a return to democracy remains dim amidst the chaos of war and foreign agendas.
Original Source: frontline.thehindu.com
