South Sudan faces escalating conflict between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, with security forces arresting officials and besieging Machar’s home. A UN helicopter was shot down, resulting in casualties. The conflict, linked to disarmament efforts, raises concerns over the implementation of the 2018 peace deal. Analysts suspect ties to the Sudan conflict, affecting oil flow and economic stability. An election is scheduled for December 2026, emphasizing the need for peace and dialogue.
South Sudan’s regional neighbors, alongside international entities, have called upon the nation’s leadership to resolve the intensifying conflict between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, which has sparked clashes across various regions. Recently, security forces apprehended several prominent officials, including those in charge of petroleum and peacebuilding, and reportedly besieged Machar’s residence in Juba.
In a tragic turn of events, a United Nations helicopter engaged in a rescue mission was shot down, resulting in the demise of several military officials, including a general. President Kiir condemned the incident as an “assassination.” The roots of the ongoing conflict, which began in February, remain ambiguous, yet human rights organizations have linked it to disarmament initiatives in the Upper Nile, Western Bahr el-Ghazal, and Western Equatoria states.
On Saturday, outgoing African Union Commission Chair Moussa Faki emphasized the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities, adherence to ceasefire agreements, and the necessity for a national dialogue among conflicting parties. Since February, the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) has engaged in combat against a loosely organized group known as the White Army in Upper Nile State’s Nasir County, which the government claims has affiliations with Machar’s party, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In Opposition (SPLM-IO).
The South Sudan government’s crackdown in Juba included the detention of Deputy Chief of SSPDF Gabriel Duop Lam, amid fears from former opposition officers now integrated into the military regarding potential repercussions. These tensions exacerbate an already volatile situation as many officers choose to hide to avoid arrest. The 2018 peace agreement, reinstating Machar as First Vice President, hangs in the balance, particularly as he now faces de facto house arrest, along with senior military officials affiliated with him.
Much of the 2018 agreement remains unfulfilled, including complete military integration, the establishment of a new constitution, and the planning of a census and elections. Regional analysts suspect that the recent violence may be associated with the conflict in Sudan, specifically the clash between the Sudanese Army (SA) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This discord has instigated an economic crisis in South Sudan by disrupting oil flows, hampering President Kiir’s capacity to maintain peace.
Throughout the conflict, Juba has strived to navigate its relationship with both factions, mainly to secure oil access to Port Sudan and sustain pipeline infrastructure. Recently, President Kiir and Sudan’s Sovereign Council Chairman, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, engaged in discussions about bilateral security challenges. Khartoum has criticized Juba for insufficiently curtailing RSF recruitment within South Sudan and for hosting a UAE-built hospital, to which Juba has countered by associating the White Army with both the SPLM-IO and the Sudanese Army.
Looking ahead, South Sudan is scheduled to conduct its inaugural elections in December 2026, marking a significant milestone more than a decade after achieving independence.
In summary, the situation in South Sudan remains precarious as calls for peace and national dialogue intensify amidst increasing violence between rival leaders. The ongoing conflict, driven by historical grievances and regional tensions, highlights the fragility of the 2018 peace agreement. As the nation prepares for its first elections in December 2026, the successful resolution of current hostilities and fulfillment of previous commitments are paramount for restoring stability and unity.
Original Source: kenyanwallstreet.com
