South Sudan faces imminent danger of renewed conflict as Nuer militia linked to Riek Machar captured a military base, inciting tensions with President Salva Kiir’s forces. The fragile unity government, established in 2018, is at risk due to ongoing violence and political strife, compounded by the effects of the Sudanese civil war. Regional leaders are urged to act swiftly to de-escalate tensions before full-scale conflict engulfs South Sudan.
South Sudan is on the brink of renewed conflict following recent violent events. On March 4, a Nuer militia linked to Riek Machar, the first vice president, captured an army base in Nasir. Machar has claimed that President Salva Kiir’s army attacked his forces in Ulang county on February 25 and in two other western regions, escalating tensions in the capital, Juba. The fragile unity government, established through a 2018 peace agreement, is under severe threat due to these developments, worsened by the arrest of Machar’s allies.
The 2018 peace agreement between Kiir and Machar has been precarious, with local violence persisting despite the lack of large-scale clashes. The ongoing civil war in Sudan has compounded South Sudan’s instability, particularly after a pipeline crucial to its economy was damaged amid Sudanese conflict. This disruption has plunged Kiir’s administration into a fiscal crisis, undermining his stability and patronage networks, leading to widespread discontent.
President Kiir has found it increasingly difficult to navigate relations with Sudanese leaders Burhan and Hemedti. For much of the past year, he appeared aligned with Burhan due to the oil pipeline’s proximity to Port Sudan, where the Sudanese military governs. However, both Burhan’s and Hemedti’s ambitions could jeopardize Kiir’s regime, given the need for delicate diplomatic relations to maintain oil flow from South Sudan.
The conflict atmosphere is further complicated by concerns of potential violent spillover from Sudanese hostilities into South Sudan. Historical manipulation of ethnic divisions by the Sudanese military has raised fears regarding the reactivation of old ties with Nuer militias. There is a growing belief that the Sudanese army may be arming these militias, leading to further unrest in Upper Nile, where hostilities have already erupted.
Concerns are escalating that Nuer militias may attempt to seize Malakal, causing significant ethnic violence that could disrupt the broader region. The South Sudanese military may also seek to retake Nasir, indicating that violence could escalate and spread. Critical is the unclear influence Machar holds over the militia, exacerbated by a broader discontent that may fuel growing militia activity.
At present, conflict remains chiefly in Upper Nile, yet tensions are visible throughout the country. Machar, who is currently secured by Kiir’s forces, may be vulnerable should all-out warfare resume. Major General Dak’s recent death during an attempt to rescue him has intensified fears of retaliation against members of Machar’s party, deepening the existing political rift and instability in Juba.
Kiir’s strategy could involve consolidating support from his Dinka ethnic group, amidst ongoing succession struggles sparked by his recent removals of key allies. Health rumors surrounding Kiir complicate matters, raising questions about his capability to maintain unity among factions. Such divisions, particularly amid a fiscal downturn, could threaten the government’s stability in the long term.
The potential collapse of Kiir and Machar’s leadership could have devastating repercussions for South Sudan, including massacres, a proliferation of armed groups, and escalating violence. This scenario could intertwine with the ongoing conflict in Sudan, allowing regional militias and foreign armies to exploit South Sudanese territory for their interests.
Preventing this disintegration is paramount. Leaders from Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia need to facilitate dialogue with Kiir and Machar urgently to de-escalate tensions. The UN may also assist these diplomatic efforts and prepare its peacekeepers for potential humanitarian interventions to prevent widespread violence and safeguard civilians.
The precarious situation in South Sudan demands immediate diplomatic intervention to prevent escalation into full-scale conflict. The actions of regional leaders and the UN could help avert catastrophic outcomes, such as ethnic violence or a regressive civil war that would draw in external actors. Collaborative efforts are essential in stabilizing the region and restoring peace under the terms of the existing peace agreement. The balance between Kiir and Machar must be maintained to avoid further deterioration and chaos.
Original Source: www.pmldaily.com
