Following Assad’s collapse, Türkiye has leveraged Iran’s strategic setbacks to expand its influence, exacerbating tensions between the two nations. Despite shared positions on regional issues like the Palestinian conflict, Ankara has cautioned Tehran against supporting opposition groups in Syria. This rivalry reflects a broader struggle for regional dominance, particularly in the context of Kurdish forces and geopolitical maneuvers in the South Caucasus, where Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan poses a direct challenge to Iranian interests.
The geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is becoming increasingly strained as Türkiye’s influence grows in the wake of the Syrian government’s collapse led by President Bashar al-Assad. Following this event, tensions between Ankara and Tehran have intensified despite their alignment on significant regional matters, such as the Palestinian struggle and opposition to Israeli policies. Turkish leaders have cautioned Iran against supporting Syrian factions that conflict with the newly established Sunni regime, fearing this could diminish Iran’s influence in the region.
Iran is apprehensive about Türkiye’s aspirations to further weaken its hold in the South Caucasus and Syria. The shift in power dynamics has highlighted Ankara’s protective stance over its gains post-Assad and a collective fear among strategists that Iran might pursue actions to regain relevance, including supporting proxies in Syria. Both nations primarily pursue regional dominance rather than ideological conflict, finding common ground in several issues, including a mutual concern regarding Israeli influence.
Moreover, Türkiye’s role as a NATO member with substantial military capabilities limits its actions to verbal denunciations of Israel while simultaneously expanding its influence against Iran. Although Western leaders support Türkiye’s growing involvement as a counterbalance to Iran, they remain cautious of Erdoğan’s potential neo-Ottoman objectives, which could undermine stability in the region.
The impact of Assad’s regime fall has become a significant contention point, revealing the competition for supremacy in Syria. Iranian officials have acknowledged this event as detrimental to their geopolitical standing. Türkiye expresses heightened concerns over Iranian military support to Kurdish factions in Syria, indicating a precarious balancing act in which Turkey aims to safeguard its interests amidst fears of Iranian empowerment of opposing groups and allies in Syria’s regional conflicts.
Statements from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan underscore Ankara’s apprehensions regarding Iranian involvement in the region, with warnings aimed at Tehran to refrain from creating instability. In response, Iranian officials have termed these comments unconstructive, indicating the potential for increased diplomatic friction between the two nations. This tension reflects underlying fears of territorial encroachment by Türkiye, fueled by concerns over Kurdish movements backed by Iran.
Fidan’s comments also signal the precarious relationship between Türkiye and Iran’s respective interests in the Alawite community, which remains tied to Tehran’s longstanding allyship with Assad. As different factions within Syria vie for power, the potential for Iranian leverage among the Alawites complicates Türkiye’s situation. The ongoing clashes revealed the latent tensions and potential consequences for Ankara and Tehran as they maneuver in the fractious landscape of post-Assad Syria.
Furthermore, Iran’s fears extend to Turkish influence within its borders, particularly due to increased Azerbaijani assertiveness in the South Caucasus. The post-2020 resurgence of conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with Türkiye’s support for Baku has fundamentally altered regional power dynamics, prompting Tehran to perceive this corridor as a strategic threat aimed at undermining its historical influence. The establishment of any new transport routes like the Zangezur Corridor poses a serious challenge to Iran’s connections and geopolitical stature in the region, amplifying existing tensions between these neighboring countries.
The article highlights a growing rift between Türkiye and Iran following the collapse of Assad’s regime in Syria, as Ankara seeks to fill the void left by Tehran’s diminished influence. Key points include Türkiye’s warnings against Iranian support for opposing groups, mutual concerns about Israeli actions, and the competition for strategic dominance in Syria and the South Caucasus. These developments indicate an evolving geopolitical landscape characterized by rising tensions rooted in both nations’ ambitions and security concerns, ultimately shaping the future of the region.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
