South Sudan is facing renewed fears of civil war as tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar escalate. Recent political actions and violence threaten the fragile 2018 peace agreement. Analysts emphasize the need for dialogue and trust to prevent a return to conflict, warning that without intervention, the risk of full-scale war remains high.
South Sudan currently faces increasing concerns regarding the potential for renewed civil war due to escalating political tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar. Analyst Edmund Yakani indicates that if these tensions are not managed promptly, the nation risks descending into full-scale conflict. The violence was notably incited by disputes related to the replacement of long-serving soldiers of the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nasir, where clashes have taken place.
The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement between Kiir’s and Machar’s factions is under threat, as recent developments have fueled distrust between the political leaders. President Kiir’s dismissal of three ministers was seen as a direct response to the ongoing political crisis, which coincided with heightened security risks, prompting the US to evacuate non-essential personnel from South Sudan. In this context, the regional authority IGAD has called for a summit to mediate the situation and potentially avert a crisis.
The violence escalated notably on March 4, when militia forces linked to Machar captured a significant military base in Nasir. This act was followed by allegations of military aggression against Machar’s supporters, indicating a deepening conflict. Edmund Yakani remarked that this violence stemmed from disagreements over military personnel replacements, resulting in the White Army militia taking control of the region amidst confrontations with government forces.
The stakes were raised further last Friday, when a UN helicopter was attacked, resulting in numerous fatalities, signalling the dangerous implications of the ongoing political power struggle. Additionally, tensions have increased in the capital, Juba, where several of Machar’s allies were arrested, raising concerns about a potential armed conflict in proximity to the capital that would have dire consequences for the opposition.
Analysts emphasize a profound and lasting deficit of trust that has plagued the relationship between Kiir and Machar since 2013. This distrust not only hampers collaboration but also exacerbates the challenges in achieving political stability and effective governance. The International Crisis Group has warned of impending conflict unless urgent diplomatic efforts are made to address these tensions.
The UN Commission on Human Rights has also raised alarms regarding the violence and political climate’s threat to the 2018 peace agreement. Yasmin Sooka, chair of the commission, highlighted the necessity for leaders to redirect their focus toward peace processes rather than perpetuating division and conflict. The implementation of power-sharing provisions remains stagnant, with the leadership failing to cooperate adequately in executing crucial elements of the peace plan, which is now in jeopardy.
Given the recent arbitrary arrests of senior officials from Machar’s faction, fears of escalated violence are substantial. Yakani cautioned that prolonged detentions may trigger another significant outbreak of civil war, underscoring the precariousness of the situation. Without decisive action from South Sudan’s leadership, the future remains uncertain, teetering on the brink of possible large-scale conflict.
The situation in South Sudan is increasingly precarious, with significant tensions between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar posing serious risks of renewed civil conflict. Analysts highlight the importance of dialogue and trust-building measures to address the deepening mistrust that has persisted since 2013. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is under threat as rising violence, political arrests, and broader instability undermine efforts toward a unified government. Urgent action is needed to avert the looming prospect of another civil war, which could derail years of progress and further endanger the South Sudanese populace.
Original Source: www.aa.com.tr
