Patrick Seale’s seminal work details Syria’s turbulent history marked by coups and the establishment of Hafez al-Assad’s regime. Following Bashar al-Assad’s inability to manage a brutal civil war, his regime collapsed in December 2024, paving the way for al-Joulani of HTS to assume control. This change heralds a decline in Alawite influence and significant regional implications, notably impacting Iranian dynamics and necessitating decisive U.S. engagement in regional politics.
In 1965, Patrick Seale’s seminal work “The Struggle for Syria” highlighted Syria as a battlefield for regional and international supremacy. The country’s history is marked by instability, with three coups in 1949 and an eventual merger with Egypt that lasted until 1961. Hafez al-Assad solidified power in 1971, establishing a strong state in exchange for an oppressive regime primarily benefiting the Alawite minority.
Following Hafez al-Assad’s death in 2000, his son Bashar assumed power, displaying a mixed governance record and ultimately succumbing to a brutal civil war starting in 2011. The regime only regained stability through military backing from Russia and Iran in 2015. While the civil war officially ended in December 2016 with the regime reclaiming Aleppo, control was fragmented, with the Assad regime governing 60 percent of Syria and various factions, including Turkey and Kurdish forces, occupying the remainder.
After reestablishing control, Assad aimed to eliminate Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib, but Turkey prevented this due to refugee concerns. In late 2024, HTS launched a successful offensive against the regime, leading to the fall of Assad in December. Al-Joulani of HTS became the new leader of Syria, signaling a shift in political power.
This shift diminishes Alawite dominance in Syria and raises questions regarding the future of governance. Al-Joulani, having distanced himself from Jihadi affiliations, faces the challenge of creating a new political identity that garners international acceptance. With Syria unlikely to embrace parliamentary democracy, stability without radical Islamist ideologies is the probable goal.
Al-Joulani’s regime must navigate complex domestic challenges, including relationships with Kurdish forces and other communities. Regionally, its emergence weakens Iranian influence, particularly as Russia attempts to retain its foothold amidst changing dynamics following recent regional conflicts. Turkey, aligned with HTS, seeks to establish itself as the new patron of Syria, influencing its direction.
Other Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, also pursue relationships with the new regime, emphasizing a pro-Western alignment. Israel remains particularly attentive to the situation, concerned about militant groups acquiring advanced weaponry post-Assad.
In the current fluid state of affairs, U.S. policy decisions, particularly under the Trump Administration, will significantly affect the trajectory of Syrian politics and regional stability. While the Biden Administration has reached out to the new regime, the Trump Administration’s hesitance has led to speculation about military withdrawal plans, potentially undermining moderate governance efforts in Syria. The U.S. must reassess its role in the ongoing struggle for Syria to stabilize the region effectively, leveraging expert inputs to guide policy.
The recent upheaval in Syria, marked by the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of al-Joulani’s regime, represents a significant turning point in the nation’s political landscape. This transition brings about a diminishing of Alawite dominance and introduces new questions regarding governance and stability. The regional implications are notable, with consequent shifts in alliances, particularly impacting Iranian and Turkish influence. U.S. foreign policy will be crucial in shaping Syria’s future, emphasizing the need for a proactive stance to promote stability and prevent further chaos in the region.
Original Source: www.hoover.org
