Tensions in South Sudan are rising due to militia violence, government reshuffles, and the arrests of officials, all amid ongoing political discord between President Kiir and Vice President Machar. The fragile peace from the 2018 agreement is jeopardized, and there are warnings of a potential return to civil war. Regional and international actors are calling for dialogue to stabilize the situation.
Renewed tensions in South Sudan are attributed to escalating militia violence in Upper Nile state, cabinet changes, and the detention of several senior officials in Juba. President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are at the heart of these tensions, which have recently resulted in deadly confrontations due to political disagreements despite their involvement in a fragile 2018 peace agreement that ended a brutal civil war.
In February, President Kiir’s dismissal of key government officials, perceived by Machar as breaches of the peace agreement, led to violent protests in western Bahr al-Ghazal. Kiir’s redeployment of military forces has also ignited unrest in areas such as Nasir in Upper Nile, where a UN helicopter was attacked, resulting in casualties among South Sudanese forces.
Multiple Western embassies condemned the attack on the UN helicopter, prompting the US Embassy to order the evacuation of non-essential American personnel from South Sudan due to ongoing armed conflict and the ready availability of weapons in local communities.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened a summit on March 12 to address the deteriorating situation, with Uganda deploying special forces to support Kiir’s government amidst tensions between rival factions. Kiir’s forces remain close to the capital, while Machar’s forces are positioned in containment sites nearby, indicating potential for conflict.
The United Nations has voiced concern regarding South Sudan’s regression, stating the country is falling back into destructive power struggles reminiscent of its past. The UN commission highlighted alarming conditions, where millions face food insecurity and displacement due to ongoing violence. Local entities have begun advocating for political dialogue to diffuse hostilities.
The problematic relationship between Kiir and Machar hampers progress towards stabilizing the nation, with unresolved historical tensions and a lack of mutual trust impeding the implementation of vital peace accords. The absence of a unified armed force and an agreed-upon constitution exacerbates the lack of governance.
Concerns regarding a return to full-scale civil war remain prevalent, as both leaders maintain independent armed factions across the nation. Analysts warn that authority may shift to militia groups like the White Army amidst the escalating crisis. The situation is further complicated by instability in Sudan, which influences South Sudan’s security landscape and economic viability.
Though some experts suggest that Rwanda’s intervention could result in a rapid decline into violence, there is still a belief that proactive international engagement may help discourage further conflict. The need for the international community’s responsible involvement remains pivotal as South Sudan grapples with its leaders’ legacies of division and conflict.
In summary, South Sudan is experiencing heightened tensions primarily due to political strife between President Kiir and First Vice President Machar, a problematic cabinet reshuffle, and ongoing militia violence. The fragile peace established by the 2018 agreement is under threat, as the leaders struggle to build mutual trust and prevent a possible return to civil war. International involvement and diplomatic efforts are crucial for stabilizing the situation and promoting dialogue to avert further hostilities.
Original Source: www.dw.com
