A recent wave of violence in Syria, instigated by loyalists of the deposed Assad regime, has raised concerns about a return to civil war. Despite the tensions, the current leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa appears to be seeking stability through economic reforms and minority rights. The situation remains delicate, with various external actors observing the developments closely, yet a full-scale conflict seems unlikely for now.
Syria has recently seen a surge in violence following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Reports indicate that hundreds, including numerous civilians, have lost their lives as Assad loyalists staged an uprising against the new leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa and his group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Although many loyalists were able to escape, a significant number remain armed and concentrated in specific areas of western Syria, particularly among the Alawite population.
While there are concerns about a resurgence of civil war within the country, most Assad loyalists are widely viewed with disdain due to the previous regime’s history of violence against civilians. The need for al-Sharaa and his administration to address economic challenges and minority rights is paramount. The economy has significantly contracted since the war, and failure to implement reforms could ignite further unrest.
Al-Sharaa appears to recognize the necessity of an inclusive strategy, seeking sanctions relief and regional financial support to aid the devastated economy. However, it remains uncertain whether his declarations promoting equal rights for all Syrians represent genuine change in perspective or are merely strategic posturing to placate external observers.
Concerns about external involvement in Syria’s sectarian violence exist, particularly regarding Iranian influence; however, reliable information on such activities is lacking. Major Arab states seem hesitant to engage in another proxy conflict, focusing more on their internal issues than on Syria’s turmoil. This scenario may evolve, but at present, external actors are cautious.
The role of the United States in stabilizing Syria remains ambiguous, as there is little indication of a desire for involvement from the current administration. Nonetheless, an agreement has been made between Damascus and the U.S.-aligned Syrian Democratic Forces to integrate the latter into Syrian military structures, signifying a potential step towards national reconstruction.
Turkey’s interest in Syria is significant, as it aims to establish a government aligned with its own interests, viewing a stable neighbor as a strategy to counter Kurdish nationalism. This alignment would facilitate economic connections with Gulf states and extend Turkey’s geopolitical influence in the region, reflecting Ankara’s ambition to assert itself within the Middle East and Muslim world.
In summary, while recent violence in Syria raises alarms about a potential civil war, the unpopularity of Assad loyalists and the leadership’s efforts to promote stability and economic recovery suggest that a wider conflict may not immediately ensue. The international community, particularly neighboring countries, is currently focused on internal issues rather than Syria, although continued vigilance and economic developments will be crucial for maintaining peace in the region.
Original Source: www.cfr.org
