The Horn of Africa faces renewed conflict risk between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly in Tigray. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, which temporarily halted violence, is now threatened by heightened tensions and political propaganda. Urgent international diplomatic efforts are essential to preserve peace and prevent further degradation of the situation, which could have wider implications for regional stability and security.
The Horn of Africa faces an imminent threat of conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, especially in the Tigray region which has previously endured significant suffering due to wars. The Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA), established on November 3, 2022, between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), has momentarily curtailed violence after years of conflict, but this fragile peace is now at risk. Current Ethiopian state narratives suggesting TPLF’s alliance with Eritrea could undermine previous agreements and trigger further hostilities.
The Pretoria Agreement, which marked a critical diplomatic advance, emerged after Ethiopian military achievements faltered against the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF). Despite the international pressures that led to this agreement, many unresolved issues persist, most prominently the Ethiopian electoral board’s refusal to recognize the TPLF as a political entity and the need to restore territories captured by external forces during the war. The severe socio-economic impact of the Tigray conflict should deter further military escalation, yet fears mount that Tigray may become embroiled in renewed combat.
Heightened tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, coupled with skirmishes involving Amhara forces and the Ethiopian military, escalate following the Pretoria Agreement. Eritrean leadership desires the complete defeat of the TPLF, contributing to a potential clash as Ethiopia seeks regional alliances. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s statements regarding access to coastlines further complicate the relationship, prompting military maneuvers on both sides and regional power realignments.
The Ankara Accord signed in December 2024 diminished Ethiopia’s opportunity for coastline claims, accelerating claims to Eritrea’s Assab port which points towards increasing militarization. Following a rise in opposition activity within Eritrea, including declarations of armed resistance, both nations have fortified their military positions along the border, increasing the prospects for conflict. Ethiopian propaganda suggests imminent war, with state media ramping up nationalistic rhetoric aligned with these aggressive positions.
Recent Ethiopian government officials have recognized the ongoing presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopian territory, potentially intended to justify further military actions against Eritrea under the guise of safeguarding national security. Tigray remains a focal point amidst these tensions, facing pressure from both federal authorities and internal divisions, leading to diminished faith in the peace process.
The Ethiopian government appears to be deploying similar tactics as previously employed before the 2020 Tigray war, leveraging state institutions to exacerbate discontent and division within the TPLF. The international community must recognize the potentially catastrophic implications of another conflict in the region, which could destabilize neighboring countries and empower extremist groups, thereby jeopardizing international maritime security.
A return to violence in Tigray would resonate through the Horn of Africa and beyond, rehashing previous tragedies experienced during the previous war. Diplomacy must be prioritized, urging all nations involved to withdraw from hostile postures and work towards peace. Urgent diplomatic interventions are needed to avert history from repeating itself, ensuring peace in the region is prioritized as vital to international stability.
In conclusion, the situation in the Horn of Africa, particularly between Ethiopia and Eritrea, is precarious and merits immediate diplomatic attention. The existing peace, established through the COHA, is under threat from renewed hostilities fueled by state propaganda and unresolved political tensions. To prevent the resurgence of conflict, it is vital for the international community, especially the U.S. and European Union, to intervene decisively and promote dialogue among all parties involved. Failure to do so risks not only another devastating war but could also destabilize the broader region and compromise global security.
Original Source: www.ethiopia-insight.com
