South Sudan is facing escalating violence as tensions between President Kiir and Vice President Machar rise, threatening the 2018 peace agreement. Recent clashes and political maneuvers, including arrests of Machar’s allies and a military encirclement, have destabilized the region. Economic pressures compounded by external conflicts exacerbate the crisis, increasing risks of ethnic violence and humanitarian suffering.
In recent weeks, South Sudan has witnessed a significant increase in violence, particularly in Upper Nile, Western Equatoria, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. This unrest has stemmed from renewed confrontations between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar’s faction. Following an attack on a military base, several allies of Machar have been arrested, intensifying the existing tensions that threaten the fragile power-sharing peace established in 2018 after a devastating civil war claiming over 400,000 lives.
The South Sudanese government has accused Machar and his supporters of collaborating with the White Army, a militia group primarily composed of the Neur ethnic group. This allegation arose after an incident in Nasir, which has led to a serious escalation in hostilities. The military surrounded Machar’s residence, and a failed rescue mission by the UN led to further casualties, showcasing the imminent risk of the ceasefire disintegrating further.
February 2025 saw violent protests in Western Bahr el-Ghazal sparked by President Kiir’s unilateral cabinet reshuffle, a move perceived as an affront to the power-sharing agreement. Key government officials were dismissed without proper justification, prompting accusations that Kiir was orchestrating a “soft coup” to solidify his control over the state apparatus ahead of anticipated elections.
On March 11, the deployment of Ugandan special forces to Juba aimed to stabilize the political landscape. Uganda’s intervention seeks to prevent regional instability and an influx of refugees, yet it may further polarize the already fraught political environment by reinforcing Kiir’s government at the risk of undermining future peace negotiations.
The escalating violence is exacerbated by economic strains, particularly the conflict involving Sudanese forces, leading to disruptions in oil infrastructure crucial to South Sudan’s economy. Approximately 810,000 Sudanese refugees have entered South Sudan since 2023, adding to the country’s economic burden, which is severely affected by significantly reduced oil revenue.
Ethnic divisions have been exploited politically, with Kiir’s centralized control over oil revenues intensifying strife. Due to these contentious dynamics, communal violence persists, exacerbated by the systemic exclusion and patronage practices established by Kiir’s administration.
Expectations of increased violence are rising, with reports suggesting potential assaults on key urban centers like Malakal. A battle for this city, characterized by its diverse ethnic composition, poses a substantial risk for broader ethnic conflict across South Sudan. Meanwhile, many citizens express disillusionment with the government amid dire humanitarian conditions, with a staggering 69 percent of the population reported to be in need of assistance.
The future remains bleak as South Sudan cannot afford a return to armed conflict. The failure of peace agreements and the ongoing unrest echo the potential return of large-scale violence, ethnic cleansing, and national instability unless a constructive and inclusive political solution is pursued.
In conclusion, South Sudan is teetering on the edge of renewed widespread conflict, with ethnic tensions ignited by recent events undermining the fragile peace established in 2018. The combination of political maneuvering, economic hardship, and external interventions illustrates a dangerous trajectory for the nation. Without addressing the root causes of conflict and fostering genuine dialogue, the prospect of enduring peace remains severely compromised. The situation necessitates immediate international attention and a concerted effort towards conflict resolution to avert further disaster.
Original Source: thesoufancenter.org
