Hamas aims to consolidate its power in Gaza by mirroring Hezbollah’s governance model in Lebanon, maintaining military control despite appearances of political legitimacy. Various proposals for Gaza’s governance risk enabling this scenario, requiring Israel to assert military control to dismantle Hamas’s capabilities effectively. A robust presence will be essential to prevent a resurgence of terrorism and ensure regional security.
Hamas is attempting to solidify its military control over Gaza while seeking a ceasefire to survive the ongoing conflict. The group aims to replicate Hezbollah’s pre-war dominance in Lebanon by creating a governance model that projects an international image of legitimacy but retains actual military and political power. This would enable Hamas to regroup, rearm, and prepare for future hostilities against Israel.
Proposals for governance in Gaza—including those from Egypt and regional coalitions—pose significant risks, as they could foster a Lebanon-like governance structure where Hamas maintains its insurgency. Egyptian President Fateh El-Sisi emphasized his country’s support for Palestinian autonomy during Arab discussions regarding the future of Gaza. Nonetheless, Egypt’s plans do not adequately address the critical issue of Hamas’s military presence.
Reports indicate that Hamas is amenable to adopting proposed governance arrangements, suggesting it may be committed to retaining power despite appearances of relinquishing control. However, dismissals from Israeli officials, including statements from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman, highlight a firm stance against allowing Hamas to dictate terms.
The Hezbollah model serves as a cautionary tale; Hamas could similarly leverage a veneer of governance to fortify its military stature while minimizing decisive military responses from Israel. The danger lies in Hamas exploiting international diplomatic constraints to rebuild its military arsenal.
The consequences of a successful Hamas governance model could mirror those in Lebanon, where Hezbollah amassed military strength under the guise of sovereignty. Hamas would potentially utilize ceasefire periods to enhance its military capabilities without facing immediate repercussions, complicating Israel’s security operations.
To maintain security and prevent a resurgence of Hamas, Israel must re-engage militarily in Gaza, establishing control sufficient to dismantle Hamas’s infrastructure entirely. Any potential governance framework, supported by international actors, must allow for Israeli operational flexibility to mitigate threats effectively. Only with stronger oversight and military presence can a future governance arrangement for Gaza be contemplated responsibly.
In conclusion, Hamas’s strategy to establish a governance model akin to Hezbollah’s in Lebanon poses significant threats to regional stability. Israel must navigate this challenging landscape strategically, ensuring that Hamas does not regain strength under the guise of political legitimacy. Effective military and political measures are vital to dismantling Hamas’s operational capacity and ensuring long-term security in Gaza before any governance transitions take place.
Original Source: besacenter.org
