Pakistan’s geopolitical relevance is challenged by US policy shifts under President Trump, fluctuating between US-India cooperation and engagement with Pakistan. Trump’s transactional foreign policy may sideline longstanding strategic interests, especially following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Islamabad attempts to reassert itself through security threats in Afghanistan while strengthening ties with China, complicating its relationship with Washington and impacting regional dynamics.
Following the withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan faces a daunting challenge in reassessing its relevance amidst shifting US foreign policy under President Donald Trump. Traditionally influenced by a triad of Allah, Army, and America, the dynamic of US-Pakistan relations is becoming increasingly transactional, with short-term agreements overshadowing long-standing strategic interests. Initial turbulence marked by the suspension of security aid in 2018, due to concerns over Pakistan’s support for militant groups, has fluctuated with later engagements featuring cordial interactions between the US and ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan’s alignment with populist sentiments resonates with Trump, who has demonstrated a similar affinity for strongman leaders. However, this relationship appears tenuous, as Trump’s foreign policy priorities have not prominently included support for Khan amidst his political struggles. Concurrently, Pakistan has strengthened ties with China through initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, posing potential complications in its relationship with the US. Tensions may arise if Pakistan fails to meet US demands, resulting in reduced assistance or tougher loan conditions from institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan significantly altered US-Pakistan dynamics, diminishing Pakistan’s leverage as Afghanistan no longer plays a central role in US policy. With rising US-India relations, Pakistan is likely to underscore security threats from Afghanistan to reclaim attention from Washington. By spotlighting risks posed by groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Islamabad may seek to re-establish its importance in US counterterrorism strategies, although its effectiveness is uncertain given the limited immediate threat posed by such factions to the United States.
This geopolitical evolution presents both opportunities and challenges for India. Trump’s preference for individual diplomacy over formal agreements suggests a continued partnership with India, albeit paired with unpredictability and potential friction in trade relations. New Delhi must adeptly navigate an increasingly volatile US policy landscape where cooperation may fluctuate between strengthening US-India ties and sporadic security engagement with Pakistan, largely dictated by Trump’s diplomatic approach.
In conclusion, Pakistan’s strategic positioning is under significant scrutiny as it attempts to navigate the complexities of US foreign policy shaped by President Trump. The evolving relations highlight the importance of adapting to changing geopolitical landscapes while addressing domestic challenges. As Islamabad seeks to redefine its role, it must contend with the looming presence of China and the solidifying partnership between the US and India. Ultimately, the quest for relevance within this shifting context will be a critical challenge for Pakistan’s future.
Original Source: www.newslaundry.com
