Amid concerns of an impending conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, significant military mobilization has been observed. The Pretoria Agreement, which established a temporary administration in Tigray, is under strain as internal political conflicts heighten tensions. The risk of interstate warfare looms, exacerbated by regional instability and power rivalries, necessitating prompt diplomatic intervention from Gulf states and Western allies to prevent broader chaos in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region.
As military forces mobilize, the Gulf states alongside their Western allies must make concerted efforts to prevent a looming war that threatens to destabilize the entire Red Sea region. Following the cessation of hostilities agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan opposition in late 2022, the situation remains precarious. This agreement concluded one of the deadliest conflicts of the century, resulting in an estimated death toll exceeding 600,000.
The Pretoria Agreement established an interim administration in Tigray, bordering both Eritrea and Sudan, yet as its two-year anniversary approaches, it faces significant challenges. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), previously dominant in Ethiopian politics, now contends with internal factions led by Debretsion Gebremichael and interim President Getachew Reda. Political infighting has penetrated the Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF), raising concerns over a potential coup.
The escalating regional disorder together with the fragile political climate in Tigray could trigger warfare between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Such a conflict would likely exacerbate existing chaos in Sudan and increase regional instability. The dynamics in the Horn of Africa are reflective of rivalries among Gulf states, especially as Saudi Arabia is wary of Ethiopia’s growing military presence on the coast.
After a historical alliance against Ethiopia’s Derg regime, the relationship between the TPLF and Eritrea’s ruling party has soured significantly, leading to a war rooted in territorial disputes in the late 1990s. Recent developments have further strained relations, with Addis Ababa accusing Asmara of supporting insurgents, while Eritrea perceives Ethiopia’s attempts at gaining Red Sea access as a threat to its sovereignty.
The rapid military mobilization across all involved parties indicates imminent conflict. Notably, Tigray’s Vice President and general Tsadkhan Gebretensae has issued warnings regarding the situation. The risk remains that once they are committed to war, these factions may find it easier to advance towards conflict than to backtrack.
A potential war in Tigray could have cascading effects, intensifying violence and insecurity across the Horn of Africa and involving a wider range of international interests. The region, already grappling with unrest due to Sudan’s civil war and ongoing conflicts, is susceptible to further destabilization, potentially driving regional tensions into a broader confrontation.
Compounding these risks is a global trend where diplomatic norms are increasingly overshadowed by violence, undermining respect for state sovereignty. The prospect of conflict emerging from the collapse of the Pretoria Agreement threatens not only to unravel stability in northeast Africa but also jeopardizes the vital geopolitical landscape of the Red Sea.
Immediate action is required from influential nations to halt the escalating tensions. Rather than relying on slow-moving diplomatic processes, a potent display of interest from Western and Middle Eastern powers, in collaboration with the African Union, could effectively mitigate the crisis. By encouraging dialogue among involved parties, stakeholders may devise solutions to the intertwining conflicts in Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan.
Should this opportunity be squandered, the looming threat of unchecked territorial expansion and the reconfiguration of borders could spiral into anarchy that surpasses existing humanitarian crises across various nations, plunging the Red Sea region into turmoil.
In summary, the possibility of renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea is critical, with significant implications for regional stability. The dynamics stemming from political discord and military mobilization urgently necessitate intervention by Gulf nations and Western allies. Through proactive diplomatic engagement, there is a chance to avert a larger catastrophe that could destabilize northeast Africa and the Red Sea, illustrating the need for immediate and effective action against escalating tensions.
Original Source: foreignpolicy.com
