The floods in Gaborone and southern Botswana in February 2025 resulted in 31 deaths and the displacement of 5,000 individuals, largely due to extreme rainfall exacerbated by inadequate urban infrastructure and human-induced climate change. Scientific studies indicate a significant increase in rainfall intensity related to climate change, although precise quantification remains uncertain. Ongoing measures to enhance flood resilience are critical for future events.
In February 2025, southern Botswana and eastern South Africa experienced significant flooding due to extreme rainfall. This catastrophe resulted in at least 31 fatalities, including 22 in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and nine in Gaborone, Botswana, among whom were six children. Approximately 5,000 individuals were displaced, with major ports of entry into South Africa closing temporarily, leading to widespread disruptions in travel and education across Botswana.
A collaborative study by scientists from multiple countries, including Botswana, South Africa, and the United States, aimed to analyze the influence of human-induced climate change on the heavy rainfall that caused these floods. They focused on the maximum rainfall recorded over a five-day period from February 16 to February 20, noting that urbanized areas like Gaborone suffer from frequent flooding during the rainy season.
The research indicated that Gaborone’s drainage systems are inadequate for its growing population, making low-lying regions particularly vulnerable. Despite a warming climate of 1.3 °C, the specific heavy rainfall event was deemed rare, expected to occur only once every ten to 200 years based on varying data sources. The event’s return period was calculated at approximately 40 years, suggesting a 2-3% annual chance of occurrence.
Further investigation into historical data since 1950 revealed a trend suggesting that such intense rainfall events would have been significantly less likely in a cooler climate. Estimates indicated an approximate 60% increase in intensity due to climate change. However, variations among climate models led to differing results concerning extreme rainfall events, complicating the quantification of climate change’s exact impact.
Looking ahead to projected 2.6 °C warming levels, the majority of climate models indicated an anticipated increase in the severity of rainfall events, aligning with the observation of a climate change signal emerging under these conditions. The synthesis of historical data trends, moisture retention capabilities of warmer air, and model projections led to a conclusion that while human-induced climate change exacerbated the rainfall leading to flooding, the precise quantification of its impact remains uncertain.
The flooding in urban areas magnified by inadequate infrastructure, including overwhelmed roads and drainage systems, significantly impacted essential services, including health clinics. Efforts to mitigate future flood risks are underway, focusing on enhancing drainage systems, regulating land use, and improving disaster preparedness. A holistic approach integrating multi-hazard assessments into urban planning and infrastructure upgrades is essential for increasing resilience to future extreme weather events.
In conclusion, the devastating floods in Gaborone and southern Botswana were driven by extreme rainfall exacerbated by rapid urbanization and human-induced climate change. Despite the difficulties in precisely quantifying these effects, the analysis suggests that inadequate infrastructure significantly magnified the impacts. Ongoing efforts to improve flood resilience through better urban planning and disaster preparedness are vital for safeguarding residents against future extreme weather events.
Original Source: www.preventionweb.net
