Libya exemplifies the ongoing U.S.-Russia rivalry, with recent U.S. military engagements aimed at swaying Gen. Haftar away from Russian support. Despite these attempts, analysts express skepticism about altering his allegiances, as Russia’s influence grows amid internal power dynamics. There is, however, some optimism regarding potential ties through Haftar’s son, Saddam, showcasing the fluid nature of this geopolitical contest.
Libya stands as a focal point of contention between the United States and Russia, reminiscent of Cold War tensions. This month, Donald Trump has made headlines with his unconventional approach of engaging Vladimir Putin while undermining traditional American alliances. In Libya, recent activities include a visit from a USAF B-52 bomber, which coincided with U.S. efforts to persuade local leaders, particularly Gen. Khalifa Haftar, to expel Russian forces from their bases in the region.
The U.S. outreach emphasizes winning over Gen. Haftar, who commands eastern Libya and has permitted Russian forces to operate as a strategic foothold for further actions against U.S. interests in Africa. Recently, Haftar and his sons visited Belarus, deepening ties with Russia. Jalel Harchaoui from the RUSI think tank indicated that while the Pentagon is spearheading U.S. diplomacy in Libya, both the Biden and Trump administrations have been inadequate in addressing the situation effectively.
During the recent visit by U.S. Africa Command, targeting exercises were conducted, which included participation from Haftar’s military personnel. Despite this, General Haftar maintains a dual approach, stating his willingness to cooperate with the U.S., while also receiving military support from Russia. This precarious balance complicates U.S. efforts to draw him away from Russian influence.
Following the U.S. activities, Russia’s deputy defense minister made another visit to eastern Libya, signaling a consolidation of Russian presence, which has reportedly increased from 300 to 450 troops since November. Analysts like Ben Fishman express skepticism towards the U.S. strategy of leveraging air power to alter Haftar’s allegiances, highlighting the existing power structure in Libya where local militias assert significant control.
Conversely, Mohamed Eljarh from Libya Outlook notes a more promising prospect with Haftar’s son, Saddam, showing interest in fostering relationships with the United States. Previous interactions suggest his intent to navigate away from Russian dependency, although the outcome remains uncertain. Umberto Profazio from the IISS think tank cautions that the Trump administration’s current non-committal stance might inadvertently accommodate the Russian presence in Libya.
In conclusion, Libya remains a critical arena where U.S. and Russian interests collide, framed by recent diplomatic maneuvers and military posturing. The dynamic relationship with Gen. Haftar and his forces poses complex challenges as both countries vie for influence. While optimism about future U.S.-Libya relations exists, the overarching uncertainty leaves the potential for American engagement and strategy unclear.
Original Source: www.defensenews.com
