The civil war in Sudan, ignited in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, has drawn in external actors, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which provide covert support. Their historical ties with Sudan and economic interests contribute to the ongoing conflict. The complexities of their involvement, alongside local aspirations for power, hinder negotiations and escalate hostilities, complicating the path to resolution.
The civil war in Sudan, which began in April 2023, involves the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis. External actors, particularly numerous Middle Eastern states including Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are divided in their support for these groups. Notably, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have provided financial and military assistance to the factions involved, despite their denials regarding these supports. Political scientist Federico Donelli examines the implications of this involvement by Gulf monarchies in Sudan.
The internal factors within Sudan precipitated the civil war, indicating that framing the conflict solely as a proxy war may overlook critical domestic elements. Nevertheless, the involvement of foreign states is significant, with Sudan developing substantial relations with Middle Eastern nations over the past two decades. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been particularly influential, given historical ties and economic interests, especially since the Arab uprisings altered regional dynamics.
Saudi Arabia’s ties with Sudan date back to its independence in 1956, fostering long-standing social connections due to geographic proximity. Conversely, the UAE has expanded its influence since the early 2000s, investing in strategic sectors. With an increased focus on Sudan following the shifts after the Arab uprisings, both Gulf monarchies sought to stabilize their interests in the Red Sea region. Both had increased their influence during Omar al-Bashir’s presidency, with Sudan contributing troops to a Saudi-led campaign in Yemen, which solidified military cooperation.
Post-Bashir, Saudi and UAE involvement continued to grow, driven by strategic objectives and the shifting dynamics of Sudan’s security environment. Since 2019, the monarchies have supported different factions within Sudan’s military; Riyadh aligned itself with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, while Abu Dhabi supported Rapid Support Forces head, Mohamed Dagalo. Their responses reflect a noticeable divergence in strategy over time.
Despite initial cooperation post-Bashir, the factions’ deterioration has led to conflict, driven by local actors empowered by the knowledge of external support. The Gulf states’ reluctance to withdraw assistance has further complicated the crisis. Furthermore, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have deemed Sudan vital to their geopolitical strategy due to its geographical significance and resources.
In a collaborative study, political scientists noted an increasing Arab influence in Sudan since 2011, driven by fears of regional instability amid changes in power dynamics following the Arab Spring. They perceived Sudan as a strategic advantage for their interests, particularly regarding military and political engagements. While UAE’s influence surged post-Arab uprisings, Saudi Arabia retained a more constant level of influence, although both countries feared al-Bashir’s connections with pro-Islamist factions.
As the conflict lingers, Sudan represents a crucial link between unstable regions, posing intertwined challenges including political unrest and threats from jihadist groups. The Gulf states, along with Qatar, have heavily invested in Sudan’s agricultural sector, emphasizing its importance for regional food security.
Prospects for resolution appear grim, as both sides view the conflict as a zero-sum game, further supported by the current global power dynamics that permit ongoing hostilities. The division of power within Sudan is likely to deepen, complicating any potential negotiations for peace.
The ongoing civil conflict in Sudan illustrates the complex interplay between domestic factors and international involvement, particularly from Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Their involvement not only underscores historical ties but also highlights the strategic importance of Sudan in addressing broader regional challenges. As the division of power in Sudan solidifies, prospects for a peaceful resolution diminish, signaling a challenging path forward for both local and international stakeholders.
Original Source: theconversation.com
