Iran is currently facing various challenges, including weakened allies, the fall of Assad in Syria, and renewed U.S. pressure with Trump’s return. While some U.S. officials believe Iran is vulnerable, Iran contends these setbacks are temporary. To stabilize its internal structure, Iran has introduced limited reforms aimed at consolidating public support and addressing dissent before external pressures intensify.
Iran has recently faced a series of setbacks that have raised concerns about its stability. Key allies Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered losses against Israel, and the fall of President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria was unexpected. Furthermore, the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency implies a resurgence of pressure on Iran, leading some U.S. officials to deem its position as one of strategic vulnerability. Richard Haass suggested that Iran is likely at its weakest point in decades, offering an opportune moment for external opposition to challenge its nuclear capabilities or demand concessions for a renewed nuclear deal.
However, Iran perceives these external adversities as merely temporary setbacks rather than definitive defeats. The Iranian leadership maintains that, despite their recent challenges, Hamas and Hezbollah have shown resilience in their asymmetric conflicts against Israel. Tehran believes both organizations will continue to thrive due to their grassroots support and the ongoing Palestinian sentiment against Israel. Furthermore, the Iranian-aligned Houthis in Yemen have solidified their position within Iran’s regional influence by attacking Israel and disrupting maritime activities in the Red Sea.
Acknowledging that its regional partnerships are weaker today, Iran has sought to bolster domestic support in response to the alarming developments, including Assad’s abrupt downfall. This has led to limited internal reforms, such as easing strict dress codes and relaxing social media restrictions, aimed at mitigating public discontent and fostering government trust. The aim is to ensure a supportive populace that can withstand external pressures, particularly if a confrontation with the United States arises.
The fall of Assad has been notably distressing for Tehran. Although the Syrian leader was unpopular, the rapid collapse of his military was unforeseen by Iranian authorities. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, indicated that the government underestimated the extent of the threat facing Assad. Tehran has also recognized discontent within Iran itself, with figures highlighting a deficit in social trust due to persistent repression and corruption.
In light of these developments, Iranian leadership has chosen to temporarily pause the implementation of a proposed veiling law that would have imposed strict punishments on women violating dress codes. This shift reflects a recognition of public unpopularity of such mandates. The easing of restrictions is viewed as a strategic maneuver to maintain stability and avoid a repeat of past social unrest that erupted after incidents like the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
Moreover, the Iranian regime has allowed more open discussions in domestic media, permitting a spectrum of opinions that include criticisms of the government. This approach appears to be designed to channel public frustrations into less dangerous outlets rather than allowing dissent to manifest as street protests. By promoting state narratives through managed discourse, Iran hopes to strengthen its internal cohesion in the face of external challenges.
The Iranian government seeks to forge unity among its populace through these gradual reforms, facilitating a discourse on foreign policy issues, particularly regarding the nuclear standoff. A consensus among political elites suggests that a unified national stance will enhance Iran’s negotiating power with the United States. Amid a backdrop of intense external pressures, the Islamic Republic aims to project a firm front and resist American demands while retaining its nuclear program and its regional influence.
Recognizing Trump’s stance, which may favor military action as pressure mounts, Iranian leaders aim to unify the public in anticipation of any potential conflict. Enhanced public support is deemed essential as Tehran navigates these tumultuous waters, ensuring its leadership can maintain power without appearing vulnerable. Limited reforms are thus a calculated strategy to manage public sentiment effectively, allowing the government to define its conflicts not as challenges to regime survival but as assertions of national sovereignty against foreign coercion, while retaining its longstanding principles of resistance.
In summary, Iran is currently navigating significant external challenges, including conflicts with allies and the potential resurgence of U.S. pressure. While U.S. analysts perceive these as signs of Iran’s vulnerability, the Iranian leadership maintains a different perspective, viewing recent setbacks as temporary. Through limited internal reforms and responsive governance, Iran strives to consolidate domestic support, mitigate public dissent, and fortify its position in international negotiations, all while remaining committed to its core objectives and regional influence.
Original Source: www.foreignaffairs.com
