This article discusses the precarious situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea under Abiy Ahmed’s regime. It highlights the ongoing ethnic fragmentation in Ethiopia and suggests that imminent conflict may serve political ends for Abiy. The article underscores the devastating consequences of the Tigray War, where both regimes aligned to eliminate a mutual threat. The overall implications highlight the need for urgent international diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region and prevent further chaos.
The situation in Ethiopia is dire, as ongoing ethnic fragmentation presents significant dangers, impacting stability in the Horn of Africa. The current discourse surrounding the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline resuscitates the imperial ambitions of Ethiopia’s past leaders, notably under Haile Selassie, reflecting a dangerous trajectory under the Abiy Ahmed regime. The potential for renewed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea looms, indicating that Ethiopia is gearing towards a serious military engagement.
Abiy Ahmed, despite his claims of being a reformist, exhibits autocratic tendencies fueled by the internal ethnic conflicts threatening his governance. Historical narratives about Ethiopia’s ethno-political makeup are revisited, further complicating the nation’s attempts at unity. The contention that ethnic division arose primarily from recent federalist policies is misleading; Ethiopia’s ethnic cleavages have roots that extend back into its history.
The prospect of war with Eritrea emerges not simply as a regional conflict but as a potential strategic maneuver for Abiy to stabilize and consolidate his authority amid growing dissent. His reliance on nationalist sentiments to forge unity amidst disarray highlights a grave desperation. A military conflict may serve to deter internal strife, enabling him to fortify his power by depicting the government as a national bulwark against external threats.
Abiy’s claims regarding Eritrea’s territorial rights serve a political motive, disguising his regime’s lack of legitimacy. Engaging in conflict seems a ploy to target opposition groups like the FANO and the Oromo Liberation Army under the guise of national security. However, launching a military operation against Eritrea would reveal Ethiopia’s underlying vulnerabilities rather than showcasing strength, given the military’s current engagements.
A conflict could also reverberate beyond the borders of Ethiopia and Eritrea, aggravating the already precarious security landscape in the Horn of Africa. Neighboring nations such as Sudan and South Sudan are experiencing their crises, further complicating the geopolitical climate. The threats of civil unrest originating from ethnic divisions within Ethiopia could lead to widespread destabilization.
Eritrea, though an isolated and authoritarian regime, remains cautious amidst provocations and may respond with force if threatened. The potential root causes of conflict between these two nations warrant international attention and urgent diplomatic efforts to avert war.
The Tigray War exemplifies Abiy and Afewerki’s strategic alignment, employing conflict to eliminate dissent while further entrenching their rule. The war’s consequences were devastating, with massive casualties and human suffering largely overlooked by the global community. The aftermath left the Tigray region vulnerable, underscoring a dire need for genuine peace and self-determination free from Ethiopian dominance.
The Pretoria peace agreement signified an end to hostilities but did little to address the political instability underlying the conflict. Abiy’s government remains in a precarious position, as the Tigray Defense Forces still pose a threat. This situation emphasizes the need for self-governance and independence for Tigrayans to ensure lasting peace and justice.
The Tigray War strategically benefitted both regimes in solidifying power while stoking ethnic animosities, preventing any future collaboration between Tigrayans and Eritreans against their leaders. As both rulers navigate their controversial alliances, the ongoing ethnic violence within Ethiopia further complicates peace prospects.
The implications of the Tigray War have exposed the heinous partnership between the Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, compromising Eritrea’s sovereignty while serving Abiy’s political interests. Eritrea’s involvement raises questions regarding Afewerki’s dedication to Eritrean nationalism amidst his regime’s growing alignment with Ethiopia.
In conclusion, the evolving dynamics between Ethiopia and Eritrea reflect a precarious balance of power influenced by internal and external pressures. Abiy Ahmed’s regime, bolstered by militaristic posturing, risks exacerbating ethnic tensions while seeking to consolidate authority through conflict. The imperative for international diplomatic engagement remains crucial to prevent an imminent humanitarian catastrophe, with the potential for widespread instability in the Horn of Africa. Both leaders’ willingness to gamble on conflict highlights the urgent need for a thoughtful and concerted global response to avert further tragedy in the region.
Original Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
