Ethiopia faces potential renewed conflict as internal divisions within the TPLF and worsening tensions with Eritrea escalate fears among residents of Tigray, who still bear the scars of the recent war. Key political conflicts and external influences could lead to a catastrophic situation unless proactive measures are taken. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae warns that urgent action is needed to maintain regional stability.
More than two years following the peace agreement that concluded the Tigray conflict, internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and escalating tensions with Eritrea raise concerns regarding a potential resurgence of violence in Ethiopia. The precarious state of affairs is being exacerbated by political rifts between Ethiopia and its neighbor, Eritrea.
In Tigray, residents now confront long fuel lines, urgent bank withdrawals, and skyrocketing food prices, fostering an atmosphere of anxiety. Most are still traumatized by the 2020-2022 war, which led to the deaths of approximately 600,000 individuals. The TPLF, previously the ruling party in Ethiopia for nearly thirty years, continues to be embroiled in conflict with local militias.
Recent violence escalated on March 11 in Mekele, the capital of Tigray, following the dismissal of three senior Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) officers by the interim regional administration. By March 13, the TDF had regained control of significant government institutions and media outlets, indicating a shift in power dynamics within the region.
At the core of the existing crisis lies the significant internal discord within the TPLF regarding the implementation of the November 2022 peace deal. Over a million displaced individuals remain unable to return to their homes, while the TDF has not been disarmed, and Eritrean troops continue to be present in Ethiopia despite being labeled as “foreign forces” in the agreement.
Gérard Prunier, a historian and former director at the French Center for Ethiopian Studies, commented on Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reluctance regarding the peace deal, saying he intends to diminish Tigrayans’ influence, who have been politically marginalized over the past decade. Additionally, a leadership conflict is unfolding between Getachew Reda, the newly appointed interim administrator, and TPLF president Debretsion Gebremichael, whose TDF forces are asserting control in critical regions.
Alongside these internal strife, tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are intensifying. Reports from Africa Intelligence indicate that Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki recently held discussions with TDF leaders who are loyal to Debretsion, a connection that Debretsion has publicly denied. Gérard Prunier voiced concern that Afwerki’s underlying motives may not align politically, but rather seek to weaken Ethiopia for Eritrea’s benefit.
Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a prominent strategist from Tigray, has raised alarms about an immediate threat of war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, urging for decisive measures to avert a potential proxy conflict. In his Civic editorial for The Africa Report, he emphasized the need for action to prevent Tigray from becoming embroiled in external confrontation, declaring, “We have suffered enough.”
In summary, Ethiopia stands at a critical juncture with the reemergence of internal divisions within the TPLF and heightened tensions with Eritrea. The ongoing humanitarian crisis and the socio-political context demand urgent attention to avoid further conflict, as historical grievances and power struggles continue to threaten stability within the region. Immediate intervention appears necessary to preserve peace and prevent a potential resurgence of violence that could lead to significant humanitarian implications.
Original Source: international.la-croix.com
