Ethiopia faces renewed tensions in Tigray two years after the Pretoria Agreement ended conflict in the region. Internal divisions among Tigrayan leaders and socioeconomic instability raise fears of renewed war. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s reforms alienated Tigrayan elites, while geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa complicate the situation further. The involvement of Middle Eastern powers adds another layer of complexity to the region’s ongoing challenges.
Ethiopia’s political landscape faces renewed peril, as tensions in the Tigray region escalate just over two years after the historic peace accords, known as the Pretoria Agreement, were signed. The agreement, which formally ended a brutal conflict in Tigray, now finds itself threatened by internal strife and leadership divisions, unsettling the region once more. There is widespread concern among residents, with individuals like Kiflom Abraha articulating fears regarding economic instability and social unrest.
Although some stability ensued after the 2022 agreement, many remain displaced and fearful of renewed conflict. Nigisti Garede, head of the Tigray Teachers’ Association, noted, “After the Pretoria Agreement, there was peace, but with many challenges.” A division has emerged among Tigrayan leaders, further complicating the political atmosphere and undermining law and order, which has left communities anxious about the future.
Power dynamics among Tigrayan elites have shifted, with support from military commanders now gravitating towards Debretsion Gebremichael, the leader of the TPLF, at the expense of Getachew Reda, who was pivotal in negotiating the Pretoria Agreement. Martin Plaut, an analyst, remarked, “The TPLF had been very united for many, many years…Now they are completely and utterly split.” This fragmentation poses significant risks for Tigray’s political stability.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s tenure has been marred by his conflicting reformist and authoritarian impulses, which have alienated elements of the Tigray elite. Abiy’s attempts to dissolve the TPLF’s influence led to the 2020-2022 conflict, a military outcome that ultimately did not achieve its aims, leaving commanders and leaders frustrated and prompting calls for further negotiations.
The specter of war looms large, with military and political leaders indicating that escalation appears unavoidable, as Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae described the situation as sounding a dire warning. Regional tensions are exacerbated by conflicts in the Horn of Africa, such as the Sudan crisis. At the same time, Ethiopia’s plans regarding hydropower have sparked disputes with neighboring Egypt and Sudan.
The role of Middle Eastern powers in the region is also significant, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates exerting influence in the complex geopolitical landscape. It appears that while Saudi Arabia has shown support for Ethiopia, it remains wary of the UAE’s regional aspirations, leaving the future trajectory of the region uncertain as allegiances continue to shift.
The situation in Tigray reflects the intricate interplay of local power dynamics and broader regional implications. The fallout from the Pretoria Agreement not only underscores the fragility of peace but also raises alarms about escalating tensions that threaten to destabilize not just Ethiopia but the broader Horn of Africa as well. The challenges facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the divided Tigrayan leadership may invoke further upheaval, demanding urgent attention and action from regional and international stakeholders. The influence of Middle Eastern powers complicates the geopolitical landscape, making the prospects for a stable resolution increasingly uncertain.
Original Source: www.dw.com
