The article explores the evolving relationship between Israel and Lebanon amidst Hezbollah’s diminishing power due to conflict fatigue, Iran’s loss of influence, and regime changes in Syria. Israeli intelligence is engaging with Lebanon’s new government, while Hezbollah’s commitment to its armed identity poses challenges to peace. Recent developments signify a cautious optimism for a ceasefire, yet true peace remains elusive due to Hezbollah’s aspirations and the region’s complexities.
Israel’s evolving relationship with Lebanon may signal a new era of potential peace, as Lebanese governance shows signs of asserting control over its territory. Orna Mizrahi from the Institute for National Security Studies notes that Hezbollah’s admission of trauma from Israeli operations indicates a significant shift. Most Lebanese, even among Hezbollah’s supporters, are weary from conflicts, which have resulted in widespread destruction and dislocation.
Factors contributing to this shift include Iran’s diminished influence due to the loss of crucial allies and resources, compounded by the regime change in Syria which has cut off supplies to Hezbollah. Ahmad al-Shara, the new Syrian leader, opposes Hezbollah and has increased surveillance against Iranian arms smuggling. These developments are fortifying Israel’s strategic position against Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon.
Following a military defeat, Hezbollah entered a ceasefire in December 2024, which allows for Israel’s military presence in strategic areas for community protection. Political dynamics in Lebanon have also changed, with Hezbollah losing its veto power under the leadership of General Joseph Aoun, who has connections to the United States.
Israeli intelligence activities have resumed with key Lebanese factions, mirroring past cooperation with Maronites in the 1950s. Despite Hezbollah’s rise in earlier decades following the expulsion of the PLO, Israel is now focused on mitigating Hezbollah’s power while balancing regional strategy. Yet, concerns remain about Hezbollah’s enduring ethos, as their identity is intertwined with their armed presence.
Recent events, including the large funeral for Hassan Nasrallah, demonstrate Hezbollah’s unresolved aspirations and influence. Experts posit that disarmament is improbable; it is integral to their identity. While Hezbollah may adopt temporary tactical retreats, threats to their interests may provoke renewed conflict.
Israel has bolstered its military presence in southern Lebanon, aware of the volatility, while also navigating U.S. pressure for potential negotiation, though such paths threaten to exacerbate internal tensions in Lebanon. Currently, a fragile truce seems the most viable expectation for future Israeli-Lebanese relations.
In conclusion, Israel’s potential for a more peaceful future with Lebanon is underpinned by significant shifts within Lebanese governance and the weakening of Hezbollah’s influence. However, longstanding tensions and Hezbollah’s entrenched identity as a militant organization present substantial challenges to disarmament and long-term stability. As the situation continues to evolve, the dynamics between Israel and Lebanon remain complex and fraught with uncertainty.
Original Source: www.thejc.com
