The arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the ICC has intensified the stakes for the May 2025 midterm elections. Analysts suggest this adds unpredictability to the rivalries between the Duterte and Marcos families, impacting their electoral strategies and public perceptions in a politically volatile climate.
Analysts suggest that the recent arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over alleged crimes against humanity has heightened the stakes for the upcoming May 2025 midterm elections. The arrest, which occurred shortly before the May 12 elections and followed the impeachment of his daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, introduces significant unpredictability into an already fraught political environment.
The midterm elections are set to be a contest between the powerful Duterte and Marcos families. Analysts believe Duterte’s arrest presents a critical challenge for the Marcos camp, which may increase its efforts to diminish the influence of the Duterte dynasty. Jean Franco, a political analyst at the University of the Philippines, noted the rivalry may intensify as both factions seek to assert their dominance.
Despite the challenges posed by Duterte’s arrest, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. appears to have the upper hand due to the resources and political machinery at his disposal. The Dutertes are vying for key positions in their Davao City stronghold, with Rodrigo Duterte aiming for mayor, while his sons pursue other significant roles in local governance. On a national level, Marcos is backing 12 senatorial candidates as several allies of the Dutertes prepare for Senate runs to ensure Vice President Duterte’s protection during her impending impeachment trial.
Sara Duterte, widely regarded as a strong contender for the 2028 presidential race, has alleged interference from Marcos allies that could impact her electoral prospects. Political analysts have raised concerns about potential unrest, suggesting that the Dutertes may attempt to challenge the Marcos administration if pressured too heavily.
Reports indicate that the military has maintained cohesion despite claims of division following Duterte’s arrest, and security measures have been heightened nationwide. Recent polling data reveals that Duterte’s former aide, Senator Christopher “Bong” Go, is among the leading candidates for reelection, alongside Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, who faces implications from the ICC case.
Election candidates are currently assessing public sentiment regarding Duterte’s legal issues, with some remaining tentative amidst uncertainty. Historical polling indicates that public approval for the ICC investigation into Duterte’s drug war has remained high, with a majority of respondents expressing disapproval of the former president’s actions during his tenure.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential elections, analysts caution that it is premature to draw definitive conclusions. Several significant legal challenges loom over Sara Duterte, which may hinder her political ambitions. While her public approval ratings are currently solid, persistent legal troubles may threaten her image and the political legacy of the Duterte family.
In summary, the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte presents formidable implications for the political landscape in the Philippines, especially concerning the May 2025 elections. With heightened tensions between the Duterte and Marcos families, potential electoral shifts may arise as candidates navigate public sentiment. The uncertain future of Sara Duterte signals the intricate interplay of political fortunes and legal challenges that could define the upcoming electoral cycle and beyond.
Original Source: www.benarnews.org
